Ravens @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sun, Sep 28, 2025, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff85°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

1-2 · Power #14

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

1-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

✓ KC W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 26–23 KC

✗ BAL (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -2.5

CloseBAL -2.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -2.5

no move

CloseBAL -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -2.5 · unchangedmodel BAL -2

model BAL -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 54% (112 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -2.5

CloseBAL -2.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 2.5-point road favorite at KC, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 37–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.9 against an average line of 2.9; 46.9 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5
Very close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Very close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Very close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Very close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Very close	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	KC @ PIT 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & spread	-1.5	29–10	W	U45.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2
KC LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; KC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OOO	3-0	100%	1-2
KC OUU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 86 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–52.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
KC	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BAL 5–10 KC KC leads · 15 games since 1999 · KC has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 5 2024	Baltimore Ravens 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 27	KC -2.5	KC W
Jan 28 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 17 @ Baltimore Ravens 10	BAL -4.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.6 →+3.3▼ 0.3#4

KC+1.3 →+1.6▲ 0.3#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BAL

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ BAL better

#15

#28

Defense

KC better ▶

#16

0.0 #18

Turnovers

KC better ▶

+0.3 #10

52 plays #30

Pace

KC faster ▶

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #1	18.7 #9	BAL
Yards / play	6.32 #2	4.92 #12	BAL
EPA / play	+0.19 #4	+0.02 #19	BAL
Success rate	46% #11	46% #23	BAL

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #21	32.0 #31	KC
Yards / play	5.20 #19	5.77 #25	KC
EPA / play	+0.08 #9	+0.12 #27	KC
Success rate	46% #10	48% #28	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	4.3 #15	10.3 #3	14.7 #10	10.3 #1	12.0 #3	22.3 #1
KC allowed	4.7 #15	5.0 #8	9.7 #10	3.3 #9	5.7 #10	9.0 #5

KC scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	1.0 #32	7.3 #14	8.3 #26	4.3 #15	7.3 #12	11.7 #11
BAL allowed	4.7 #15	5.3 #12	10.0 #13	6.7 #30	15.3 #32	22.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.