Panthers @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sun, Sep 28, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff77°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

1-2 · Power #26

final

Final

New England Patriots

1-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

NE -3

✓ NE W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 20–23 NE

✓ NE (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -4.5

CloseNE -3

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -4.5

1.5 → CAR

CloseNE -3

1.5 pts toward Carolina Panthers

Total

Open44.5

▼ 2

Close42.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -4.5 · closed NE -3 · moved 1.5 toward CARmodel NE -3 matches the line

model NE -3 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (138 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 37% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -4.5

CloseNE -3

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 3-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 42–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 2.9; 47.6 points a game (usually 44). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIN vs ATL 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	6–22	L	U44.5
Close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	HOU vs TB 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	19–20	L	U42.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread	-3.5	38–13	W	O43.5
Close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	WSH vs LV 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	41–24	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1
NE LWL	1-2	33%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR UOU	1-2	33%	1-2
NE UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 152 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	3-7 30%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
NE	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAR 3–5 NE NE leads · 8 games since 2001 · NE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−3.5 →−2.8▲ 0.7#29

NE−2.3 →−2.6▼ 0.3#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CAR

Longer bar = better

#24

Offense

NE better ▶

#15

Defense

◀ CAR better

#24

−0.3 #20

Turnovers

◀ CAR better

−1.0 #27

64 plays #10

Pace

Even

65 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #19	22.7 #19	Even
Yards / play	4.31 #30	5.83 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	+0.08 #26	Even
Success rate	43% #19	47% #26	CAR

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #22	17.7 #7	CAR
Yards / play	5.35 #15	5.67 #24	NE
EPA / play	+0.01 #15	−0.04 #13	Even
Success rate	46% #9	43% #14	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	4.3 #15	1.0 #32	5.3 #31	5.3 #8	10.0 #5	15.3 #4
NE allowed	4.7 #16	7.0 #19	11.7 #19	5.3 #23	5.7 #12	11.0 #16

NE scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	6.3 #9	4.3 #26	10.7 #19	2.7 #23	6.7 #14	9.3 #22
CAR allowed	4.3 #15	9.0 #23	13.3 #22	2.3 #7	2.0 #2	4.3 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.