Raiders @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sun, Sep 21, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff72°F6 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

1-1 · Power #30

final

Final

Washington Commanders

1-1 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

WSH -2.5

✓ WSH W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 20–22 WSH

✓ WSH (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -6.5

CloseWSH -2.5

Total47.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -6.5

4 → LV

CloseWSH -2.5

4 pts toward Las Vegas Raiders

Total

Open47.5

▼ 3

Close44.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -6.5 · closed WSH -2.5 · moved 4 toward LVmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (148 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 40% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -6.5

CloseWSH -2.5

Total47.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 2.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 41–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 3.3; 44 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Loose	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Loose	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Loose	NYG vs CAR 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2	19–16	W	U43.5
Loose	JAX vs NYG 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3	17–23	L	U43.5
Loose	SEA vs NYG 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-3	27–13	W	U44.5
Loose	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Loose	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Loose	IND vs TB 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form	-2.5	27–20	W	O44.5
Loose	SEA vs MIA 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	24–3	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1
WSH WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; WSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UU	0-2	0%	1-1
WSH UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 157 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
WSH	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LV 1–5 WSH WSH leads · 6 games since 2005 · WSH has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−2.0 →−2.3▼ 0.3#24

WSH+0.7 →+1.0▲ 0.3#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

WSH

#29

Offense

WSH better ▶

#19

#11

Defense

Even

#10

−1.0 #26

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

0.0 #19

64 plays #13

Pace

Even

65 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: WSH defense

	LV off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	14.5 #31	16.5 #5	WSH
Yards / play	4.78 #24	5.08 #12	WSH
EPA / play	−0.15 #29	−0.04 #11	WSH
Success rate	37% #31	42% #13	WSH

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: LV defense

	WSH off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #23	16.5 #6	LV
Yards / play	5.09 #21	5.31 #17	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #17	−0.05 #10	LV
Success rate	45% #15	42% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

LV scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.0	1.5	6.5	5.0	3.0	8.0
WSH allowed	3.5	5.0	8.5	3.0	5.0	8.0

WSH scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	0.0	11.0	11.0
LV allowed	8.5	5.0	13.5	1.5	1.5	3.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.