Bears @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sun, Sep 28, 2025, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

1-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

1-2 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

LV -2.5

✓ CHI W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 22–24 LV

✗ LV (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -1.5

CloseLV -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -1.5

4 → LV

CloseLV -2.5

4 pts toward Las Vegas Raiders

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -1.5 · closed LV -2.5 · moved 4 toward LVmodel LV -1

model LV -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (158 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -1.5

CloseLV -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 2.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 25–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 2.8; 46.3 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Close	NYJ vs HOU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-2.5	21–13	W	U43.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	NYJ vs SEA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	21–26	L	O41.5
Close	NYJ vs MIA 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	32–20	W	O39.5
Loose	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Loose	LAC vs TEN 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	17–14	P	U46.5
Loose	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
LV WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	—

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; LV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
LV UUO	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 139 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
LV	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CHI 6–3 LV CHI leads · 9 games since 1999 · CHI has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 22 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 12 @ Chicago Bears 30	LV -1.5	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−1.4 →−1.7▼ 0.3#22

LV−2.0 →−2.8▼ 0.8#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CHI

Longer bar = better

#15

Offense

◀ CHI better

#25

#28

Defense

LV better ▶

#22

+0.7 #8

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

−0.3 #24

61 plays #18

Pace

LV faster ▶

63 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #9	24.7 #21	CHI
Yards / play	5.66 #9	5.95 #28	CHI
EPA / play	+0.01 #18	+0.05 #22	Even
Success rate	41% #24	44% #18	LV

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #26	31.0 #28	Even
Yards / play	5.08 #20	6.67 #32	LV
EPA / play	−0.08 #24	+0.07 #24	Even
Success rate	37% #29	49% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	9.3 #2	6.7 #19	16.0 #4	4.7 #14	4.7 #27	9.3 #24
LV allowed	8.0 #29	7.7 #21	15.7 #25	5.7 #26	3.3 #5	9.0 #5

LV scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.3 #15	3.3 #28	7.7 #28	3.3 #23	6.7 #16	10.0 #17
CHI allowed	5.7 #23	10.3 #28	16.0 #26	3.3 #9	11.7 #29	15.0 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.