Raiders @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sun, Oct 5, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

1-3 · Power #30

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

3-1 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -7.5

✓ IND W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 20–28 IND

✓ IND (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -6.5

CloseIND -7.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -6.5

1 → IND

CloseIND -7.5

1 pt toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open48.5

▼ 2

Close46.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -6.5 · closed IND -7.5 · moved 1 toward INDmodel IND -4

model IND -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 48% (80 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 18% (22 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -6.5

CloseIND -7.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 7.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 40–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 46.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 57%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 6.8; 52.3 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 9 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Very close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Very close	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Close	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5
Close	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WLLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-2
IND WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3
IND UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 4 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 49% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
IND	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LV 5–9 IND IND leads · 14 games since 2000 · IND has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 31 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 20 @ Indianapolis Colts 23	IND -3.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−2.0 →−2.8▼ 0.8#27

IND−0.8 →+1.7▲ 2.5#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

IND

#24

Offense

IND better ▶

#20

Defense

Even

#17

−1.0 #29

Turnovers

IND better ▶

+0.8 #7

60 plays #20

Pace

Even

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	LV off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #24	20.8 #11	IND
Yards / play	5.47 #14	5.44 #20	LV
EPA / play	−0.11 #29	−0.03 #12	IND
Success rate	40% #27	47% #26	Even

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #4	24.8 #22	IND
Yards / play	6.46 #1	5.49 #21	IND
EPA / play	+0.18 #2	+0.01 #18	IND
Success rate	51% #1	44% #18	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.0 #11	4.3 #27	9.3 #23	4.3 #17	5.8 #20	10.0 #20
IND allowed	3.3 #7	6.8 #16	10.0 #12	3.5 #9	7.3 #19	10.8 #15

IND scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	7.3 #5	10.3 #4	17.5 #1	5.0 #9	8.3 #11	13.3 #8
LV allowed	6.8 #26	7.3 #19	14.0 #26	6.0 #27	4.8 #8	10.8 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.