Vikings vs Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sun, Oct 5, 2025, 9:30 AM EDTWeek 5 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff60°F14 mphgusts 37DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

2-2 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Cleveland Browns

1-3 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

✓ MIN W

Total

35.5

▲ Over · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 20–17 CLE

✓ MIN (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -3.5

CloseMIN -3.5

Total37.5 → 35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -3.5

no move

CloseMIN -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open37.5

▼ 2

Close35.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -3.5 · unchangedmodel MIN -2.5

model MIN -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -3.5

CloseMIN -3.5

Total37.5 → 35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like MIN as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against CLE, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 21–17; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 38 points went over 35.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 2.5; 45 points a game (usually 44). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MIN vs PIT 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–24	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MIN WLWL	2-2	50%	0-1	1-2
CLE WLWL	2-2	50%	—	2-2

Venue/role: MIN neutral, as favorite; CLE neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OUOO	3-1	75%	2-2
CLE UOUU	1-3	25%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 30 earlier overs in games with totals 32.5–38.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
CLE	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 4–2 CLE MIN leads · 6 games since 2005 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+1.0 →+0.8▼ 0.2#15

CLE−2.1 →−2.7▼ 0.6#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MIN

Longer bar = better

CLE

#19

Offense

◀ MIN better

#31

Defense

Even

#10

0.0 #13

Turnovers

◀ MIN better

−1.5 #31

56 plays #28

Pace

CLE faster ▶

66 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	MIN off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #10	25.5 #24	MIN
Yards / play	5.23 #21	4.06 #1	CLE
EPA / play	−0.09 #27	−0.05 #10	CLE
Success rate	45% #16	39% #5	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	CLE off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #31	20.0 #9	MIN
Yards / play	4.23 #29	4.88 #10	MIN
EPA / play	−0.21 #30	−0.16 #1	MIN
Success rate	34% #32	42% #11	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.3 #16	8.8 #8	13.0 #13	3.5 #24	9.0 #8	12.5 #11
CLE allowed	4.3 #13	7.5 #20	11.8 #19	5.0 #17	8.8 #24	13.8 #24

CLE scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	1.8 #29	3.3 #28	5.0 #32	4.0 #19	5.0 #24	9.0 #27
MIN allowed	5.0 #17	4.0 #4	9.0 #8	4.3 #14	6.8 #15	11.0 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.