Buccaneers @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sun, Oct 5, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Seattle Seahawks

Weather at kickoff59°F9 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3-1 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Seattle Seahawks

3-1 · Power #1

final

Closing spread

SEA -3.5

✓ TB W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 21–24 SEA

✗ SEA (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -2.5

CloseSEA -3.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -2.5

1 → SEA

CloseSEA -3.5

1 pt toward Seattle Seahawks

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -2.5 · closed SEA -3.5 · moved 1 toward SEAmodel TB -1

model TB -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (163 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -2.5

CloseSEA -3.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 3.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 38–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 3.1; 49 points a game (usually 44). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	SF vs JAX 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	21–26	L	O46.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Close	PIT vs DAL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	23–20	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB WWLL	2-2	50%	2-0	2-1
SEA LWWW	3-1	75%	1-1	2-0

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1
SEA UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q3. Of 161 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
SEA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TB 7–5 SEA TB leads · 12 games since 1999 · TB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+1.2 →+1.6▲ 0.4#12

SEA−0.1 →+1.9▲ 2.0#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

SEA

#20

Offense

SEA better ▶

#13

#11

Defense

SEA better ▶

0.0 #14

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #11

65 plays #8

Pace

◀ TB faster

58 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	TB off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #15	16.8 #3	SEA
Yards / play	5.17 #22	4.48 #3	SEA
EPA / play	+0.03 #16	−0.06 #9	SEA
Success rate	40% #25	41% #8	SEA

When SEA has the ball

Even matchup

	SEA off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #6	24.3 #20	SEA
Yards / play	5.73 #8	4.58 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #19	−0.06 #8	TB
Success rate	44% #18	43% #12	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.3 #25	9.3 #5	12.5 #11	6.0 #5	5.8 #20	11.8 #13
SEA allowed	4.0 #11	3.5 #3	7.5 #4	0.8 #1	8.5 #24	9.3 #7

SEA scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	8.8 #2	8.5 #7	17.3 #2	4.0 #19	6.5 #18	10.5 #18
TB allowed	8.5 #31	4.0 #5	12.5 #23	2.5 #3	9.3 #25	11.8 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.