Giants @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sun, Oct 5, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New York Giants

1-3 · Power #22

final

Final

New Orleans Saints

0-4 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

NO -2.5

✓ NO W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

NYG 21–23 NO

✓ NO (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYG -2.5

CloseNO -2.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNYG -2.5

5 → NO

CloseNO -2.5

5 pts toward New Orleans Saints

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NYG -2.5 · closed NO -2.5 · moved 5 toward NOmodel NYG -0.5

model NYG -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (160 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYG -2.5

CloseNO -2.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 2.5-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 26–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 42.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 2.4; 45.4 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LV vs CHI 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–25	L	O46.5
Close	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Close	LV vs JAX 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	19–14	W	U41.5
Close	NYJ vs MIA 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	32–20	W	O39.5
Loose	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Loose	MIA vs TEN 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	12–31	L	O37.5
Loose	NYJ vs SEA 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-1.5	21–26	L	O41.5
Loose	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Loose	NE vs WSH 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–20	L	U40
Loose	SEA vs ATL 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-1	23–27	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYG LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2
NO LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	—

Venue/role: NYG away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYG UOUU	1-3	25%	1-3
NO UOOO	3-1	75%	0-4

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYG	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
NO	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NYG 6–10 NO NO leads · 16 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 8 2024	New Orleans Saints 14 @ New York Giants 11	NO -5.5	NYG W
Dec 17 2023	New York Giants 6 @ New Orleans Saints 24	NO -6	NO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYG−2.6 →−3.4▼ 0.8#29

NO−1.6 →−3.6▼ 2.0#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

NYG

Longer bar = better

#27

Offense

Even

#26

Defense

Even

#24

0.0 #18

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #15

64 plays #10

Pace

NO faster ▶

68 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYG has the ball

Even matchup

	NYG off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #27	30.3 #30	Even
Yards / play	4.93 #24	5.40 #19	NO
EPA / play	−0.10 #28	+0.10 #27	Even
Success rate	40% #28	46% #20	NO

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #28	25.3 #23	NYG
Yards / play	4.44 #28	5.73 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.08 #26	+0.09 #25	Even
Success rate	43% #21	47% #27	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYG scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	3.3 #24	5.5 #24	8.8 #25	3.5 #25	6.0 #19	9.5 #23
NO allowed	11.0 #32	10.3 #29	21.3 #32	4.8 #15	4.3 #7	9.0 #5

NO scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.8 #30	6.5 #19	8.3 #26	3.3 #28	5.0 #24	8.3 #30
NYG allowed	2.5 #4	8.3 #23	10.8 #15	5.5 #24	8.3 #21	13.8 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.