Chargers @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sun, Sep 28, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at New York Giants

Weather at kickoff78°F3 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

3-0 · Power #15

final

Final

New York Giants

0-3 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -5.5

✓ NYG W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 25–20 NYG

✗ LAC (69%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -5.5

CloseLAC -5.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -5.5

no move

CloseLAC -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -5.5 · unchangedmodel LAC -6

model LAC -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 56% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -5.5

CloseLAC -5.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 5.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NYG won 21–18 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 5.4; 43.4 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ CAR 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	0–30	L	U43.5
Very close	LAR @ TEN 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	33–19	W	O40.5
Very close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Very close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Very close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	IND @ TEN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	41–20	W	O42.5
Close	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Close	GB @ CLE 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	10–13	L	U40.5
Close	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0
NYG LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUU	1-2	33%	3-0
NYG UOU	1-2	33%	0-3

Stayed under: it needed 5 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 50% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
NYG	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAC 5–1 NYG LAC leads · 6 games since 2005 · NYG has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.5 →+2.0▲ 1.5#8

NYG−2.6 →−3.9▼ 1.3#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

LAC

Longer bar = better

NYG

#11

Offense

◀ LAC better

#22

Defense

◀ LAC better

#27

0.0 #19

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

−0.7 #25

66 plays #8

Pace

◀ LAC faster

63 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAC offense

	LAC off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #15	27.7 #24	LAC
Yards / play	5.52 #10	5.66 #23	LAC
EPA / play	+0.08 #10	+0.15 #29	LAC
Success rate	46% #7	49% #31	LAC

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	NYG off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #27	16.7 #3	LAC
Yards / play	5.41 #11	4.85 #9	Even
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	−0.09 #6	LAC
Success rate	39% #26	35% #1	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	6.7 #8	6.7 #18	13.3 #11	4.3 #12	5.7 #23	10.0 #15
NYG allowed	3.3 #6	7.7 #21	11.0 #18	4.7 #19	11.0 #27	15.7 #29

NYG scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	2.0 #28	5.3 #23	7.3 #28	2.0 #27	8.0 #9	10.0 #15
LAC allowed	1.0 #3	5.3 #10	6.3 #3	5.3 #23	5.0 #7	10.3 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.