Bengals @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Mon, Sep 29, 2025, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff71°F2 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

2-1 · Power #24

final

Final

Denver Broncos

1-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -7.5

✓ DEN W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 20–27 DEN

✓ DEN (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -7.5

CloseDEN -7.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -7.5

no move

CloseDEN -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -7.5 · unchangedmodel DEN -1.5

model DEN -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 47% (78 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -7.5

CloseDEN -7.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 7.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 28–3; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 44.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 7.2; 55.9 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Very close	ARI vs CAR 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	27–22	L	O45.5
Close	HOU vs JAX 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–20	L	U46.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5
Close	SF vs DAL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	30–24	W	O47.5
Close	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Close	WSH vs DAL 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & team ratings	-10.5	26–34	L	O44.5
Close	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LWL	1-2	33%	0-2	0-1
DEN LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN UOO	2-1	67%	2-1
DEN UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
DEN	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 6–9 DEN DEN leads · 15 games since 2000 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 28 2024	Denver Broncos 24 @ Cincinnati Bengals 30	CIN -3.5	CIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+0.5 →−1.6▼ 2.1#21

DEN+0.4 →+0.5▲ 0.1#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CIN

Longer bar = better

DEN

#29

Offense

DEN better ▶

#22

#25

Defense

DEN better ▶

−1.3 #30

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

−0.3 #21

55 plays #29

Pace

DEN faster ▶

58 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	CIN off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #24	21.3 #13	DEN
Yards / play	3.99 #31	4.86 #10	DEN
EPA / play	−0.28 #32	−0.08 #6	DEN
Success rate	38% #29	39% #3	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #18	30.3 #30	DEN
Yards / play	5.24 #20	5.42 #20	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #21	+0.05 #23	Even
Success rate	38% #28	47% #25	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.7 #16	4.3 #27	9.0 #23	5.7 #8	4.7 #28	10.3 #20
DEN allowed	4.0 #11	9.0 #25	13.0 #22	3.0 #7	5.3 #9	8.3 #4

DEN scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	3.3 #23	9.3 #5	12.7 #13	6.7 #3	3.3 #31	10.0 #21
CIN allowed	7.0 #27	13.3 #32	20.3 #31	9.0 #32	1.0 #1	10.0 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.