Jets @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sun, Sep 21, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff89°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

New York Jets

0-2 · Power #32

final

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2-0 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

TB -6.5

✓ NYJ W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 20–26 TB

✓ TB (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -6.5

CloseTB -6.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -6.5

no move

CloseTB -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▼ 2

Close42.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -6.5 · unchangedmodel TB -7.5

model TB -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 50% (94 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -6.5

CloseTB -6.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 6.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 29–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 42.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 7; 52.4 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Very close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Close	CHI vs NE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	3–19	L	U37.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	PIT vs NYG 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	26–18	W	O37.5
Close	ARI vs CAR 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	27–22	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
TB WW	2-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ OU	1-1	50%	0-2
TB UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 145 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
TB	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYJ 4–3 TB NYJ leads · 7 games since 2000 · TB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−1.0 →−2.4▼ 1.4#26

TB+1.2 →+1.5▲ 0.3#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NYJ

Longer bar = better

#21

Offense

TB better ▶

#15

#25

Defense

TB better ▶

#15

−1.0 #27

Turnovers

TB better ▶

0.0 #16

55 plays #28

Pace

TB faster ▶

64 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	NYJ off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #22	19.5 #13	TB
Yards / play	5.03 #22	5.33 #19	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #20	+0.01 #17	Even
Success rate	43% #20	42% #12	TB

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #18	32.0 #30	TB
Yards / play	4.84 #23	5.39 #21	Even
EPA / play	+0.13 #8	+0.19 #30	TB
Success rate	45% #12	44% #18	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

NYJ scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.5	6.5	11.0	3.5	6.5	10.0
TB allowed	8.5	1.5	10.0	1.5	8.0	9.5

TB scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.5	8.5	12.0	3.5	6.0	9.5
NYJ allowed	8.5	10.0	18.5	1.5	12.0	13.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.