Saints @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sun, Sep 21, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Seattle Seahawks

Weather at kickoff64°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

0-2 · Power #23

final

Final

Seattle Seahawks

1-1 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

SEA -6.5

✓ SEA W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 19–25 SEA

✓ SEA (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -7.5

CloseSEA -6.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -7.5

1 → NO

CloseSEA -6.5

1 pt toward New Orleans Saints

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -7.5 · closed SEA -6.5 · moved 1 toward NOmodel SEA -6

model SEA -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 49% (95 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 38% (40 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -7.5

CloseSEA -6.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 6.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 44–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 6.6; 52.5 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Very close	TB vs DEN 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	7–26	L	U40.5
Close	CHI vs NE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	3–19	L	U37.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & total	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5
Close	MIN vs CHI 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	30–12	W	U43.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO LL	0-2	0%	—	0-2
SEA LW	1-1	50%	0-1	—

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UO	1-1	50%	0-2
SEA UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q2. Of 135 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
SEA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NO 6–7 SEA SEA leads · 13 games since 2000 · SEA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.6 →−2.5▼ 0.9#28

SEA−0.1 →+0.3▲ 0.4#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

SEA

#24

Offense

SEA better ▶

#17

Defense

SEA better ▶

#12

0.0 #17

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #20

68 plays #7

Pace

◀ NO faster

57 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	NO off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #26	17.0 #9	SEA
Yards / play	4.57 #27	4.97 #11	SEA
EPA / play	−0.06 #24	−0.02 #13	SEA
Success rate	43% #19	43% #14	SEA

When SEA has the ball

Even matchup

	SEA off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #17	23.0 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #12	4.81 #9	Even
EPA / play	−0.07 #25	+0.05 #20	NO
Success rate	45% #13	45% #21	SEA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 20 teams

NO scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	0.0	8.5	8.5	3.5	5.0	8.5
SEA allowed	6.5	4.0	10.5	0.0	6.5	6.5

SEA scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	3.5	10.0	13.5
NO allowed	4.5	12.0	16.5	3.0	3.5	6.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.