Cowboys @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sun, Sep 21, 2025, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff77°F7 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

1-1 · Power #21

final

Final

Chicago Bears

0-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

✓ CHI W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 25–23 CHI

✗ DAL (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -1.5

CloseDAL -1.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -1.5

3 → DAL

CloseDAL -1.5

3 pts toward Dallas Cowboys

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -1.5 · closed DAL -1.5 · moved 3 toward DALmodel DAL -2

model DAL -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 57% (70 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -1.5

CloseDAL -1.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 1.5-point road favorite at CHI, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CHI won 31–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 2.1; 46.7 points a game (usually 42.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & total	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Loose	BAL @ DAL 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	28–25	W	O47.5
Loose	LV @ TEN 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2	22–24	L	O45.5
Loose	MIA @ DET 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-3	31–27	W	O52
Loose	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Loose	PHI @ KC 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-1.5	20–17	W	U46.5
Loose	ARI @ SEA 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread	-1.5	6–16	L	U46.5
Loose	BAL @ BUF 2025 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-1.5	40–41	L	O51.5
Loose	IND @ CAR 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	27–13	W	U45
Loose	SEA @ ARI 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	21–20	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL WL	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1
CHI LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: DAL away, as favorite; CHI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL UO	1-1	50%	1-1
CHI OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 47% of games with totals 47.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
CHI	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DAL 5–5 CHI Series tied · 10 games since 2004 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL−1.0 →−1.0–#22

CHI−1.4 →−2.6▼ 1.2#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

DAL

Longer bar = better

CHI

Offense

◀ DAL better

#22

#29

Defense

Even

#29

−0.5 #24

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #25

70 plays #3

Pace

◀ DAL faster

64 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #5	39.5 #32	DAL
Yards / play	5.65 #10	7.15 #32	DAL
EPA / play	+0.09 #11	+0.14 #24	DAL
Success rate	46% #9	49% #29	DAL

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #15	30.5 #28	CHI
Yards / play	5.17 #17	6.36 #30	CHI
EPA / play	−0.12 #27	+0.19 #31	Even
Success rate	37% #30	48% #28	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 24 teams

DAL scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	3.5	11.5	15.0	3.5	10.0	13.5
CHI allowed	7.0	10.0	17.0	5.0	17.5	22.5

CHI scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.0	5.0	12.0	3.5	7.0	10.5
DAL allowed	6.5	10.5	17.0	3.0	10.5	13.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.