Lions @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Mon, Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff68°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

1-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Baltimore Ravens

1-1 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

BAL -4.5

✓ DET W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 25–29 BAL

✗ BAL (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -5.5

CloseBAL -4.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -5.5

1 → DET

CloseBAL -4.5

1 pt toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -5.5 · closed BAL -4.5 · moved 1 toward DETmodel BAL -3

model BAL -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 56% (102 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 36% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -5.5

CloseBAL -4.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 4.5-point home favorite against DET, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 38–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 4.1; 56 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET vs GB 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	34–31	L	O53.5
Very close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Close	DET vs BUF 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	42–48	L	O55.5
Close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	BAL vs CIN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	35–34	L	O52.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Loose	BUF vs DEN 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & rest	-7.5	31–7	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
BAL LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: DET away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET UO	1-1	50%	1-1
BAL OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 18 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
BAL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DET 2–5 BAL BAL leads · 7 games since 2005 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 22 2023	Detroit Lions 6 @ Baltimore Ravens 38	BAL -3.5	BAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+2.8 →+3.5▲ 0.7#4

BAL+3.6 →+4.0▲ 0.4#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

DET

Longer bar = better

BAL

Offense

Even

#17

Defense

◀ DET better

#21

+0.5 #10

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #11

62 plays #15

Pace

◀ DET faster

52 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #4	29.0 #25	DET
Yards / play	6.15 #3	5.47 #22	DET
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	−0.01 #19	DET
Success rate	48% #4	44% #17	DET

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #1	24.0 #21	BAL
Yards / play	6.54 #2	5.45 #21	BAL
EPA / play	+0.26 #2	−0.01 #17	BAL
Success rate	45% #14	39% #7	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 30 teams

DET scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	6.5	10.5	17.0
BAL allowed	3.5	4.5	8.0	6.5	14.5	21.0

BAL scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	3.0	12.0	15.0	12.0	13.5	25.5
DET allowed	8.5	7.0	15.5	0.0	8.5	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.