Browns @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sun, Sep 28, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Detroit Lions

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

1-2 · Power #29

final

Final

Detroit Lions

2-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -10.5

✓ DET W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 18–29 DET

✓ DET (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -8.5

CloseDET -10.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -8.5

2 → DET

CloseDET -10.5

2 pts toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -8.5 · closed DET -10.5 · moved 2 toward DETmodel DET -12

model DET -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 53% (40 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (46 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -8.5

CloseDET -10.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 10.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 34–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 44.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.5 against an average line of 10.4; 48.9 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	GB vs CHI 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-10.5	22–24	L	O41.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	28–14	W	U44.5
Close	BUF vs NYJ 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	40–14	W	O44.5
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	TB vs CAR 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	48–14	W	O47.5
Close	DET vs CHI 2024 · Week 13 · close	-10	23–20	L	U48.5
Close	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5
Loose	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & rest	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Loose	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	2-1
DET LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE UOU	1-2	33%	1-2
DET UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 51% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
DET	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLE 2–5 DET DET leads · 7 games since 2001 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE−2.1 →−2.0▲ 0.1#24

DET+2.8 →+4.4▲ 1.6#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CLE

Longer bar = better

DET

#30

Offense

DET better ▶

#10

Defense

◀ CLE better

#19

−1.3 #28

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+0.7 #5

67 plays #6

Pace

◀ CLE faster

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: DET defense

	CLE off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	15.3 #30	26.0 #23	DET
Yards / play	4.36 #29	5.59 #22	DET
EPA / play	−0.16 #30	+0.01 #18	DET
Success rate	36% #31	42% #12	DET

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #2	22.7 #18	DET
Yards / play	6.26 #3	3.76 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.24 #2	−0.02 #14	DET
Success rate	52% #2	39% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	0.0 #31	4.3 #26	4.3 #32	4.3 #12	6.7 #14	11.0 #12
DET allowed	8.0 #28	7.0 #19	15.0 #24	2.3 #7	8.7 #23	11.0 #16

DET scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	7.0 #5	8.0 #9	15.0 #5	6.7 #3	12.7 #2	19.3 #2
CLE allowed	3.3 #6	5.7 #12	9.0 #9	6.7 #29	7.0 #17	13.7 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.