Lions @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sun, Oct 5, 2025, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff82°F6 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

3-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

2-2 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

DET -9.5

✓ DET W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 30–21 CIN

✓ DET (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -8.5

CloseDET -9.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -8.5

1 → DET

CloseDET -9.5

1 pt toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -8.5 · closed DET -9.5 · moved 1 toward DETmodel DET -7

model DET -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (75 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -8.5

CloseDET -9.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like DET as a 9.5-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 37–24; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 5 similar games. 61 points went over 48.5, as in 4 of 5.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

1 of 520%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 54%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 7.1; 53.4 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Loose	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Loose	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Loose	TB @ CAR 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	26–23	L	O46.5
Loose	GB @ DAL 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	40–40	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET LWWW	3-1	75%	1-1	2-0
CIN LWLL	1-3	25%	1-0	0-2

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1
CIN UOOU	2-2	50%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 106 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
CIN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DET 1–6 CIN CIN leads · 7 games since 2001 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+2.8 →+4.9▲ 2.1#1

CIN+0.5 →−2.9▼ 3.4#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

DET

Longer bar = better

CIN

Offense

◀ DET better

#31

Defense

◀ DET better

#27

+1.0 #4

Turnovers

◀ DET better

−0.8 #27

61 plays #18

Pace

◀ DET faster

52 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #1	29.8 #27	DET
Yards / play	5.96 #5	5.70 #26	DET
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	+0.10 #26	DET
Success rate	49% #5	48% #29	DET

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: DET defense

	CIN off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	15.3 #30	22.0 #15	DET
Yards / play	3.93 #31	5.10 #11	DET
EPA / play	−0.28 #32	−0.09 #5	DET
Success rate	38% #29	38% #2	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	7.0 #4	9.3 #6	16.3 #3	5.0 #11	13.0 #1	18.0 #1
CIN allowed	7.0 #28	13.5 #32	20.5 #32	6.8 #30	2.5 #1	9.3 #7

CIN scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.3 #18	3.3 #29	7.5 #28	4.3 #16	3.5 #32	7.8 #31
DET allowed	7.8 #30	5.3 #10	13.0 #23	2.5 #2	6.5 #16	9.0 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.