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NFL · 2025

NFL Week 5 games

FinalCurrentUpcomingWeek 5: 1st-half lines & halftime results ›Spread edge and Total edge = our projection vs the market ⓘ · Trend = this season’s results
14 finalFavorites 5-9 ATS9 upsetsO/U 9-5Model Favorite 5-9Week in numbers ›

Week in numbers

Tap a number to filter the games below
Games1414 final · 0 to play
Favorites ATS5-936% covered
Upsets9outright
Over / Under9-564% over
Model Favorite5-936% won
Totals moved 1+ ptTap to filter
Moved up2 all 2 final
Over2 100%Under0 0%
Moved down7 all 7 final
Over4 57%Under3 43%
Did the team the spread moved toward cover? ATS vs the closing line, by how far it moved
Moved towardThis week20252024–2026
Any move
6–555%
94–9849%
229–252–448%
1.5+ pts
2–250%
43–4350%
116–117–250%
3+ pts
2–250%
21–2744%
56–58–149%
5+ pts
2–167%
7–750%
17–1652%
7+ pts
—
1–325%
2–722%
Covered–didn’t–push; % leaves out pushes and is grey under 10 games; green or red from 10 games. ClickTap a row or count to filter.
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Thursday, Oct 2

1
Final · Division
San Francisco 49ers
3-1 · #10
26
Los Angeles Rams
3-1 · #2
23
Spread
LAR -8.5
✓ SF W ATS
Total
43.5 ▼3
▲ Over 49 · Q4
Projected
17–25
✗ LAR lost
Trend: LAR ATS ✗Trend: Under ✗ Model: SF by 1 ✓ Model: Under 1 ✗ Cover settled: Q1

Sunday, Oct 5

12
Final · Neutral
Minnesota Vikings
2-2 · #17
21
Cleveland Browns
1-3 · #29
17
Spread
MIN -3.5
✓ MIN W ATS
Total
35.5 ▼2
▲ Over 38 · Q4
Projected
20–17
✓ MIN won
Trend: Under ✗ Model: CLE by 1 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✓ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Las Vegas Raiders
1-3 · #30
6
Indianapolis Colts
3-1 · #13
40
Spread
IND -7.5
✓ IND W ATS
Total
46.5 ▼2
▼ Under 46
Projected
20–28
✓ IND won
Trend: IND ATS ✓Trend: Under ✓ Model: LV by 3.5 ✗ Model: Over 1.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
New York Giants
1-3 · #22
14
New Orleans Saints
0-4 · #23
26
Spread
NO -2.5
✓ NO W ATS
Total
42.5
▼ Under 40
Projected
21–23
✓ NO won
Model: NYG by 3 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✗ Cover settled: Q3
Final · Non-conf
Dallas Cowboys
1-2-1 · #21
37
New York Jets
0-4 · #32
22
Spread
NYJ -2.5
✓ DAL W ATS
Total
47.5 ▲3
▲ Over 59 · Q4
Projected
24–26
✗ NYJ lost
Trend: NYJ ATS ✗Trend: Over ✓ Model: DAL by 3 ✓ Model: Over 3 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Denver Broncos
2-2 · #8
21
Philadelphia Eagles
4-0 · #9
17
Spread
PHI -4.5
✓ DEN W ATS
Total
44.5
▼ Under 38
Projected
20–24
✗ PHI lost
Trend: PHI ATS ✗ Model: DEN by 2 ✓ Model: Under 1 ✓ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Miami Dolphins
1-3 · #28
24
Carolina Panthers
1-3 · #26
27
Spread
MIA -1.5
✓ CAR W ATS
Total
44.5
▲ Over 51 · Q4
Projected
23–22
✗ MIA lost
Model: MIA by 0.5 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✓ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Houston Texans
1-3 · #3
44
Baltimore Ravens
1-3 · #14
10
Spread
HOU -2.5
✓ HOU W ATS
Total
41.5 ▼2
▲ Over 54 · Q3
Projected
23–21
✓ HOU won
Trend: HOU ATS ✓Trend: Under ✗ Model: BAL by 1.5 ✗ Model: Over 3 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Tennessee Titans
0-4 · #31
22
Arizona Cardinals
2-2 · #25
21
Spread
ARI -7.5
✓ TEN W ATS
Total
41.5 ▼1
▲ Over 43 · Q4
Projected
18–25
✗ ARI lost
Trend: ARI ATS ✗ Model: ARI by 2 ✗ Model: Over 1.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3-1 · #18
38
Seattle Seahawks
3-1 · #1
35
Spread
SEA -3.5
✓ TB W ATS
Total
45.5 ▲1
▲ Over 73 · Q3
Projected
21–24
✗ SEA lost
Trend: SEA ATS ✗ Model: TB by 4.5 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Detroit Lions
3-1 · #6
37
Cincinnati Bengals
2-2 · #24
24
Spread
DET -9.5
✓ DET W ATS
Total
48.5
▲ Over 61 · Q4
Projected
30–21
✓ DET won
Trend: DET ATS ✓ Model: CIN by 2.5 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✓ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
Washington Commanders
2-2 · #27
27
Los Angeles Chargers
3-1 · #15
10
Spread
LAC -3.5
✓ WSH W ATS
Total
48.5 ▼1
▼ Under 37
Projected
22–25
✗ LAC lost
Trend: LAC ATS ✗ Model: WSH by 4 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Division
New England Patriots
2-2 · #5
23
Buffalo Bills
4-0 · #4
20
Spread
BUF -7.5
✓ NE W ATS
Total
48.5 ▼1
▼ Under 43
Projected
20–28
✗ BUF lost
Trend: NE ATS ✓ Model: BUF by 3.5 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1

Monday, Oct 6

1
Final · Non-conf
Kansas City Chiefs
2-2 · #12
28
Jacksonville Jaguars
3-1 · #7
31
Spread
KC -3.5
✓ JAX W ATS
Total
45.5
▲ Over 59 · Q4
Projected
23–20
✗ KC lost
Model: JAX by 1 ✓ Model: Under 2.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q3
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StatusMatchupSpreadMoveTotalModelSignalDetails
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Hover a column name for what it means. Records are before kickoff; #N = power rank. Data signal badges: green = ATS, teal = Over, purple = Under; solid = moderate or strong lean (blue left edge on the row); ✓/✗ = how the lean did. ↗ Line toward model the line (or total) has moved toward the model's pick since the open; hover it for how such picks have done. small sample · QB ⓘ quarterback on the injury report (hover or tap it to see who). In our 2023–26 backtest, moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) and total leans 21-24 (47%), so treat them as context, not picks.
Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total