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NFL · 2025

NFL Week 16 games

FinalCurrentUpcomingWeek 16: 1st-half lines & halftime results ›Spread edge and Total edge = our projection vs the market ⓘ · Trend = this season’s results
16 finalFavorites 7-9 ATS6 upsetsO/U 10-6Model Favorite 10-6Week in numbers ›

Week in numbers

Tap a number to filter the games below
Games1616 final · 0 to play
Favorites ATS7-944% covered
Upsets6outright
Over / Under10-663% over
Model Favorite10-663% won
Totals moved 1+ ptTap to filter
Moved up6 all 6 final
Over5 83%Under1 17%
Moved down10 all 10 final
Over5 50%Under5 50%
Did the team the spread moved toward cover? ATS vs the closing line, by how far it moved
Moved towardThis week20252024–2026
Any move
7–750%
94–9849%
229–252–448%
1.5+ pts
6–367%
43–4350%
116–117–250%
3+ pts
4–0100%
21–2744%
56–58–149%
5+ pts
1–0100%
7–750%
17–1652%
7+ pts
1–0100%
1–325%
2–722%
Covered–didn’t–push; % leaves out pushes and is grey under 10 games; green or red from 10 games. ClickTap a row or count to filter.
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Thursday, Dec 18

1
Final · Division
Los Angeles Rams
11-3 · #2
37
Seattle Seahawks
11-3 · #1
38
Spread
SEA -1.5
✓ LAR W ATS
Total
42.5 ▼5
▲ Over 75 · Q4
Projected
20–21
✓ SEA won
Trend: Under ✗ Model: LAR by 1 ✓ Model: Under 2 ✗ Cover settled: Q2

Saturday, Dec 20

2
Final · Division
Philadelphia Eagles
9-5 · #9
29
Washington Commanders
4-10 · #27
18
Spread
PHI -7
✓ PHI W ATS
Total
43.5 ▼2
▲ Over 47 · Q4
Projected
26–19
✓ PHI won
Trend: PHI ATS ✓Trend: Under ✗ Model: WSH by 2.5 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✓ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Division
Green Bay Packers
9-4-1 · #11
16
Chicago Bears
10-4 · #16
22
Spread
CHI -1.5
✓ CHI W ATS
Total
44.5 ▼2
▼ Under 38
Projected
21–22
✓ CHI won
Trend: CHI ATS ✓Trend: Under ✓ Model: GB by 4.5 ✗ Model: Under 1.5 ✓ Cover settled: OT

Sunday, Dec 21

12
Final · Non-conf
Buffalo Bills
10-4 · #4
23
Cleveland Browns
3-11 · #29
20
Spread
BUF -10.5
✓ CLE W ATS
Total
41.5 ▼1
▲ Over 43 · Q4
Projected
26–15
✓ BUF won
Trend: BUF ATS ✗Trend: Under ✗ Model: BUF by 0 ✗ Model: Under 1 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Los Angeles Chargers
10-4 · #15
34
Dallas Cowboys
6-7-1 · #21
17
Spread
DAL -1.5
✓ LAC W ATS
Total
50.5 ▲2
▲ Over 51 · Q4
Projected
25–26
✗ DAL lost
Trend: LAC ATS ✓Trend: Over ✓ Model: LAC by 2.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Kansas City Chiefs
6-8 · #12
9
Tennessee Titans
2-12 · #31
26
Spread
KC -3.5
✓ TEN W ATS
Total
37.5 ▼4
▼ Under 35
Projected
23–18
✗ KC lost
Trend: TEN ATS ✓Trend: Under ✓ Model: KC by 8.5 ✗ Model: Over 3.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Cincinnati Bengals
4-10 · #24
45
Miami Dolphins
6-8 · #28
21
Spread
CIN -3.5
✓ CIN W ATS
Total
48.5 ▼2
▲ Over 66 · Q3
Projected
26–23
✓ CIN won
Trend: CIN ATS ✓Trend: Under ✗ Model: MIA by 6.5 ✗ Model: Over 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q3
Final · Non-conf
New York Jets
3-11 · #32
6
New Orleans Saints
4-10 · #23
29
Spread
NO -7
✓ NO W ATS
Total
39.5 ▼1
▼ Under 35
Projected
18–24
✓ NO won
Trend: NO ATS ✓ Model: NYJ by 4.5 ✗ Model: Over 2.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q3
Final · Non-conf
Minnesota Vikings
6-8 · #17
16
New York Giants
2-12 · #22
13
Spread
MIN -2.5
✓ MIN W ATS
Total
41.5 ▼2
▼ Under 29
Projected
23–20
✓ MIN won
Trend: MIN ATS ✓Trend: Under ✓ Model: NYG by 3.5 ✗ Model: Over 1.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7-7 · #18
20
Carolina Panthers
7-7 · #26
23
Spread
TB -3
✓ CAR W ATS
Total
44.5 ▼1
▼ Under 43
Projected
23–20
✗ TB lost
Trend: TB ATS ✗ Model: CAR by 1 ✓ Model: Under 1 ✓ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
Jacksonville Jaguars
10-4 · #7
34
Denver Broncos
12-2 · #8
20
Spread
DEN -3.5
✓ JAX W ATS
Total
46.5 ▲3
▲ Over 54 · Q3
Projected
21–24
✗ DEN lost
Trend: Over ✓ Model: JAX by 1 ✓ Model: Under 1.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Atlanta Falcons
5-9 · #20
26
Arizona Cardinals
3-11 · #25
19
Spread
ATL -2.5
✓ ATL W ATS
Total
48.5 ▲2
▼ Under 45
Projected
25–22
✓ ATL won
Trend: ATL ATS ✓Trend: Over ✗ Model: ARI by 3 ✗ Model: Under 1.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q3
Final · Non-conf
Pittsburgh Steelers
8-6 · #19
29
Detroit Lions
8-6 · #6
24
Spread
DET -7.5
✓ PIT W ATS
Total
52.5 ▲3
▲ Over 53 · Q4
Projected
21–29
✗ DET lost
Trend: DET ATS ✗Trend: Over ✓ Model: DET by 2 ✗ Model: Under 2 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Las Vegas Raiders
2-12 · #30
21
Houston Texans
9-5 · #3
23
Spread
HOU -14.5
✓ LV W ATS
Total
39.5 ▲2
▲ Over 44 · Q4
Projected
12–26
✓ HOU won
Trend: HOU ATS ✗Trend: Over ✓ Model: LV by 1.5 ✓ Model: Under 1 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
New England Patriots
11-3 · #5
28
Baltimore Ravens
7-7 · #14
24
Spread
BAL -3.5
✓ NE W ATS
Total
47.5 ▼1
▲ Over 52 · Q4
Projected
22–25
✗ BAL lost
Trend: NE ATS ✓ Model: NE by 1.5 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q4

Monday, Dec 22

1
Final · Non-conf
San Francisco 49ers
10-4 · #10
48
Indianapolis Colts
8-6 · #13
27
Spread
SF -4.5
✓ SF W ATS
Total
46.5 ▲1
▲ Over 75 · Q3
Projected
27–23
✓ SF won
Trend: SF ATS ✓ Model: IND by 3.5 ✗ Model: Over 3.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
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Hover a column name for what it means. Records are before kickoff; #N = power rank. Data signal badges: green = ATS, teal = Over, purple = Under; solid = moderate or strong lean (blue left edge on the row); ✓/✗ = how the lean did. ↗ Line toward model the line (or total) has moved toward the model's pick since the open; hover it for how such picks have done. small sample · QB ⓘ quarterback on the injury report (hover or tap it to see who). In our 2023–26 backtest, moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) and total leans 21-24 (47%), so treat them as context, not picks.
Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total