Chargers @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Sun, Dec 21, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Dallas Cowboys

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

10-4 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Dallas Cowboys

6-7-1 · Power #21

final

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

✓ LAC W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 25–26 DAL

✗ DAL (55%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDAL -1.5

CloseDAL -1.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDAL -1.5

no move

CloseDAL -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DAL -1.5 · unchangedmodel LAC -1

model LAC -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 52% (106 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDAL -1.5

CloseDAL -1.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 1.5-point home favorite against LAC, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 34–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.2 against an average line of 2.9; 53 points a game (usually 43.4). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Very close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Very close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	MIN vs CHI 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	17–19	L	U47.5
Close	DAL vs ARI 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U53.5
Close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	CIN vs PIT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-3.5	38–44	L	O46.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar season form	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WLWWW	8-6	57%	2-4	3-0
DAL WW–LL	6-7	46%	3-3	2-5

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUOUU	6-8	43%	10-4
DAL OUOOO	10-4	71%	6-7-1

Went over in Q4. Of 86 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
DAL	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAC 5–3 DAL LAC leads · 8 games since 2001 · LAC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 16 2023	Dallas Cowboys 20 @ Los Angeles Chargers 17	DAL -1.5	DAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.5 →+1.7▲ 1.2#13

DAL−1.0 →−0.5▲ 0.5#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

LAC

Longer bar = better

DAL

#19

Offense

DAL better ▶

Defense

◀ LAC better

#30

+0.1 #12

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

−0.5 #29

65 plays #6

Pace

DAL faster ▶

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAC offense

	LAC off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #19	30.0 #31	LAC
Yards / play	5.23 #20	6.03 #29	LAC
EPA / play	−0.01 #21	+0.15 #30	LAC
Success rate	44% #17	49% #31	LAC

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #5	20.3 #9	Even
Yards / play	6.02 #4	4.95 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.10 #7	−0.08 #6	Even
Success rate	47% #7	41% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.4 #9	5.9 #25	11.3 #17	5.6 #10	5.4 #27	11.0 #19
DAL allowed	8.3 #32	7.9 #23	16.2 #30	4.6 #15	9.0 #29	13.6 #28

DAL scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	4.0 #21	11.6 #1	15.6 #4	6.1 #7	7.0 #13	13.1 #8
LAC allowed	4.1 #12	6.0 #11	10.1 #11	4.7 #17	5.5 #7	10.2 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.