Jets @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Sun, Dec 21, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New York Jets

3-11 · Power #32

final

Final

New Orleans Saints

4-10 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

NO -7

✓ NO W

Total

39.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 18–24 NO

✓ NO (72%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNO -3.5

CloseNO -7

Total40.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNO -3.5

3.5 → NO

CloseNO -7

3.5 pts toward New Orleans Saints

Total

Open40.5

▼ 1

Close39.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NO -3.5 · closed NO -7 · moved 3.5 toward NOmodel NO -2.5

model NO -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 73%, covered 51% (98 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 54% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNO -3.5

CloseNO -7

Total40.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 7-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 29–6; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 39.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 7.2; 40.1 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs LV 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-8.5	34–19	W	O43.5
Close	LAR vs LV 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form	-7.5	20–15	L	U43.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar total & season form	-6.5	23–9	W	U37.5
Close	CAR vs NO 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	7–17	L	U38.5
Close	HOU vs TEN 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	26–0	W	U39.5
Loose	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & total	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Loose	WSH vs NYG 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	19–31	L	O39
Loose	PIT vs ARI 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6	10–24	L	U41
Loose	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar season form	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Loose	DEN vs NE 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	23–26	L	O37.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ LWWLL	7-7	50%	3-3	7-5
NO WL–WW	5-8	38%	2-5	1-1

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UUOOO	9-5	64%	3-11
NO UUUOU	4-10	29%	4-10

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 55% of games with totals 36.5–42.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
NO	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYJ 2–5 NO NO leads · 7 games since 2001 · NO has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−1.0 →−5.1▼ 4.1#30

NO−1.6 →−3.7▼ 2.1#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

NYJ

Longer bar = better

#27

Offense

Even

#28

#23

Defense

NO better ▶

#15

−1.2 #32

Turnovers

NO better ▶

−0.3 #22

60 plays #23

Pace

NO faster ▶

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	NYJ off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #27	23.7 #20	NO
Yards / play	4.60 #29	5.08 #11	NO
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	−0.01 #13	NO
Success rate	42% #26	44% #15	NO

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	16.1 #30	28.4 #30	Even
Yards / play	4.72 #28	5.44 #20	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.11 #28	+0.12 #28	Even
Success rate	42% #25	44% #14	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.0 #21	3.9 #29	7.9 #30	3.0 #27	8.8 #3	11.8 #15
NO allowed	7.6 #31	8.6 #27	16.2 #30	4.0 #10	3.5 #2	7.5 #1

NO scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.9 #32	6.4 #20	8.3 #28	3.1 #26	4.7 #31	7.9 #30
NYJ allowed	6.5 #30	9.9 #29	16.4 #32	5.6 #24	6.4 #15	11.9 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.