Saints @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2025)

Sun, Dec 28, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Tennessee Titans

Weather at kickoff70°F16 mphgusts 34Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

5-10 · Power #23

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

3-12 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

NO -1.5

✓ NO W

Total

38.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 19–17 TEN

✓ NO (56%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNO -1.5

CloseNO -1.5

Total39.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNO -1.5

no move

CloseNO -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open39.5

▼ 1

Close38.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NO -1.5 · unchangedmodel NO -2.5

model NO -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (98 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNO -1.5

CloseNO -1.5

Total39.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 1.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 34–26; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 38.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 2.8; 44.5 points a game (usually 43.5). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ NYJ 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	24–27	L	O38.5
Very close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Very close	MIA @ NYJ 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	MIN @ NYG 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	16–13	W	U41.5
Close	TEN @ JAX 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar total & rest	-1.5	13–20	L	U38.5
Close	NYJ @ JAX 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	32–25	W	O41.5
Close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Close	CLE @ LV 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	16–20	L	U38.5
Close	MIA @ CAR 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO L–WWW	6-8	43%	3-3	2-1
TEN WLWLW	7-8	47%	4-4	7-8

Venue/role: NO away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UUOUU	4-11	27%	5-10
TEN OUOOU	9-6	60%	3-12

Went over in Q3. Of 117 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–41.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	1-9 10%
TEN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NO 4–5 TEN TEN leads · 9 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 10 2023	Tennessee Titans 15 @ New Orleans Saints 16	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.6 →−2.9▼ 1.3#23

TEN−1.8 →−5.7▼ 3.9#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

TEN

#27

Offense

◀ NO better

#31

#11

Defense

◀ NO better

#25

−0.2 #19

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #20

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ NO faster

59 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #29	26.9 #26	Even
Yards / play	4.77 #28	5.70 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	+0.09 #27	Even
Success rate	42% #24	45% #19	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	TEN off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #30	22.5 #14	NO
Yards / play	4.42 #31	4.95 #7	NO
EPA / play	−0.15 #30	−0.04 #10	NO
Success rate	38% #31	43% #11	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.9 #32	6.4 #22	8.3 #28	3.4 #25	5.3 #30	8.7 #30
TEN allowed	5.8 #26	7.9 #22	13.7 #23	7.3 #31	5.9 #9	13.2 #27

TEN scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.9 #24	3.6 #31	7.5 #31	3.1 #26	6.1 #22	9.2 #27
NO allowed	7.3 #31	8.3 #27	15.5 #30	3.7 #6	3.3 #1	7.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.