Ravens @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2025)

Sat, Dec 27, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff35°F10 mphgusts 19DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

7-8 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Green Bay Packers

9-5-1 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

GB -2.5

✓ BAL W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 18–20 GB

✗ GB (59%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -2.5

CloseGB -2.5

Total46.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -2.5

no move

CloseGB -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 9

Close37.5

Down 9 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -2.5 · unchangedmodel GB -3.5

model GB -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (198 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -2.5

CloseGB -2.5

Total46.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 2.5-point home favorite against BAL, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 41–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 37.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.2 against an average line of 2.8; 47.4 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CLE vs JAX 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	31–27	W	O37.5
Loose	BAL vs PIT 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form & rest	-2	13–16	L	U35.5
Loose	CLE vs CHI 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	20–17	W	U38
Loose	NE vs MIA 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	23–21	L	O41.5
Loose	SF vs TB 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	35–7	W	O38.5
Loose	NO vs ATL 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	48–17	W	O41.5
Loose	TB vs NO 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	17–16	L	U41
Loose	LAR vs CLE 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	36–19	W	O39.5
Loose	HOU vs TB 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form	-2.5	39–37	L	O39.5
Loose	TEN vs HOU 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	16–19	L	U38

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LLLWL	5-10	33%	3-3	0-2
GB W–WLL	5-9	36%	4-3	5-8

Venue/role: BAL away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL UUOUO	9-6	60%	7-8
GB UOOOU	8-7	53%	9-5-1

Went over in Q2. Of 76 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
GB	6-4 60%	3-6 33%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BAL 3–4 GB GB leads · 7 games since 2001 · BAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.6 →+0.8▼ 2.8#16

GB+2.2 →+2.9▲ 0.7#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

BAL

Longer bar = better

#15

Offense

GB better ▶

#18

Defense

GB better ▶

#12

−0.3 #22

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+0.1 #10

57 plays #28

Pace

GB faster ▶

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #14	20.2 #9	GB
Yards / play	5.72 #8	4.90 #6	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #18	+0.01 #19	Even
Success rate	44% #19	44% #14	GB

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #12	23.2 #16	Even
Yards / play	5.64 #10	5.43 #19	GB
EPA / play	+0.14 #2	+0.02 #20	GB
Success rate	48% #4	44% #15	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	3.7 #26	6.0 #25	9.7 #25	7.3 #2	6.9 #13	14.2 #2
GB allowed	1.1 #1	6.1 #13	7.2 #1	4.7 #16	7.7 #25	12.4 #19

GB scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	2.9 #30	7.2 #14	10.1 #23	5.3 #13	8.7 #3	13.9 #3
BAL allowed	3.5 #7	7.2 #18	10.7 #14	5.6 #25	6.9 #18	12.5 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.