Bears @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2025)

Sun, Dec 28, 2025, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 17 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff52°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

11-4 · Power #16

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

11-4 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -4.5

✓ CHI W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 22–27 SF

✓ SF (66%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -3

CloseSF -4.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -3

1.5 → SF

CloseSF -4.5

1.5 pts toward San Francisco 49ers

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -3 · closed SF -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward SFmodel SF -5

model SF -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 50% (139 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 25% (24 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -3

CloseSF -4.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 4.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 42–38; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 4; 50.6 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Very close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Very close	DEN vs DAL 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	44–24	W	O51.5
Very close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	DET vs TB 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	24–9	W	U54.5
Close	DET vs DAL 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	44–30	W	O55.5
Close	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WWLWW	10-5	67%	5-3	5-3
SF WWWWW	10-5	67%	3-3	8-2

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUOUU	8-7	53%	11-4
SF OUUOO	9-6	60%	11-4

Went over in Q3. Of 56 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–54.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
SF	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CHI 8–9 SF SF leads · 17 games since 2000 · SF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 8 2024	Chicago Bears 13 @ San Francisco 49ers 38	SF -3.5	SF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−1.4 →+0.8▲ 2.2#15

SF+0.9 →+2.7▲ 1.8#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

CHI

Longer bar = better

#10

Offense

Even

#21

Defense

Even

#22

+1.4 #1

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

−0.3 #25

66 plays #2

Pace

Even

65 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #10	21.3 #11	Even
Yards / play	5.65 #10	5.56 #23	CHI
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	+0.05 #22	CHI
Success rate	46% #10	48% #30	CHI

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #9	23.6 #20	SF
Yards / play	5.46 #14	5.90 #29	SF
EPA / play	+0.09 #6	−0.01 #12	SF
Success rate	49% #2	46% #24	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	5.9 #6	5.7 #26	11.6 #15	5.7 #10	8.1 #3	13.8 #5
SF allowed	3.2 #5	7.4 #19	10.6 #12	4.4 #13	6.3 #12	10.7 #13

SF scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.4 #8	7.6 #9	13.0 #8	5.7 #9	7.2 #12	12.9 #9
CHI allowed	2.9 #2	7.9 #21	10.9 #16	5.1 #20	7.6 #24	12.7 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.