49ers @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Mon, Dec 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

10-4 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Indianapolis Colts

8-6 · Power #13

final

Closing spread

SF -4.5

✓ SF W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 27–23 IND

✓ SF (65%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -5.5

CloseSF -4.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -5.5

1 → IND

CloseSF -4.5

1 pt toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -5.5 · closed SF -4.5 · moved 1 toward INDmodel SF -1

model SF -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 54% (85 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (67 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -5.5

CloseSF -4.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 4.5-point road favorite at IND, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 48–27; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 3.5; 50.9 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	LAC @ LV 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	20–9	W	U46.5
Close	KC @ JAX 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	28–31	L	O45.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & rest	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Close	SF @ ARI 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	41–22	W	O48.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Close	BUF @ HOU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	19–23	L	U44.5
Close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF LWWWW	9-5	64%	6-2	7-2
IND WWLLW	9-5	64%	4-2	4-1

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; IND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OOUUO	8-6	57%	10-4
IND OUUOU	7-7	50%	8-6

Went over in Q3. Of 200 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
IND	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SF 2–5 IND IND leads · 7 games since 2001 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+1.9▲ 1.0#11

IND−0.8 →+2.5▲ 3.3#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

IND

#10

Offense

IND better ▶

#22

Defense

IND better ▶

#15

−0.4 #27

Turnovers

IND better ▶

+0.1 #10

65 plays #3

Pace

◀ SF faster

60 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #10	21.6 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.37 #16	5.24 #14	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	−0.02 #11	Even
Success rate	48% #3	45% #21	SF

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #6	20.9 #11	IND
Yards / play	5.96 #7	5.57 #23	IND
EPA / play	+0.11 #6	+0.06 #23	IND
Success rate	47% #5	48% #30	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	4.8 #13	7.4 #11	12.2 #11	5.4 #11	6.7 #13	12.1 #13
IND allowed	3.8 #9	6.7 #16	10.5 #13	3.6 #6	7.3 #22	10.9 #14

IND scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	6.4 #4	8.4 #6	14.8 #6	6.3 #6	6.5 #18	12.8 #9
SF allowed	2.9 #2	7.2 #19	10.1 #11	4.5 #15	6.3 #13	10.8 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.