Bengals @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Sun, Dec 21, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff80°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

4-10 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

Miami Dolphins

6-8 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

✓ CIN W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 26–23 MIA

✓ CIN (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCIN -1.5

CloseCIN -3.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -1.5

2 → CIN

CloseCIN -3.5

2 pts toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -1.5 · closed CIN -3.5 · moved 2 toward CINmodel MIA -3

model MIA -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (130 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (48 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCIN -1.5

CloseCIN -3.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 3.5-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 45–21; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 48.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 2.9; 42.1 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Close	NYJ @ TEN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest	-3.5	24–17	W	U42.5
Loose	MIA @ CAR 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & rest	-1.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Loose	PIT @ NE 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	21–14	W	U44.5
Loose	SF @ ARI 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	41–22	W	O48.5
Loose	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & total	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Loose	LAC @ ARI 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	25–24	L	P49
Loose	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Loose	LAC @ LV 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	20–27	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LWWWL	6-8	43%	3-4	1-2
MIA WW–WL	7-6	54%	3-2	4-4

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN UUUOU	8-6	57%	4-10
MIA UUUOU	8-6	57%	6-8

Went over in Q3. Of 137 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MIA	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CIN 7–6 MIA CIN leads · 13 games since 2000 · CIN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+0.5 →−4.0▼ 4.5#29

MIA0.0 →−2.3▼ 2.3#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

CIN

Longer bar = better

MIA

#23

Offense

Even

#20

#32

Defense

MIA better ▶

#21

−0.4 #26

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

−0.1 #19

61 plays #19

Pace

◀ CIN faster

56 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #20	23.1 #16	Even
Yards / play	5.14 #22	5.56 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #26	+0.05 #22	Even
Success rate	43% #22	47% #26	Even

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.1 #23	31.2 #32	MIA
Yards / play	5.42 #14	6.39 #32	MIA
EPA / play	0.00 #18	+0.17 #32	MIA
Success rate	42% #24	50% #32	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.0 #21	6.4 #20	10.4 #22	4.1 #22	7.9 #8	12.0 #13
MIA allowed	3.4 #5	5.5 #8	8.9 #5	6.6 #28	7.6 #25	14.2 #30

MIA scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	4.9 #12	6.7 #17	11.6 #14	1.9 #31	7.4 #9	9.4 #27
CIN allowed	4.7 #20	9.9 #29	14.6 #29	6.8 #30	9.8 #30	16.6 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.