Dolphins @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Mon, Dec 15, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff15°F6 mphgusts 14DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

6-7 · Power #28

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

7-6 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

PIT -3

✓ PIT W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 21–24 PIT

✓ PIT (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPIT -3

ClosePIT -3

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -3

no move

ClosePIT -3

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -3 · unchangedmodel PIT -1.5

model PIT -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (171 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPIT -3

ClosePIT -3

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 3-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: PIT won 28–15; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 3.2; 42.9 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Very close	LAC vs MIN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	37–10	W	O44.5
Very close	MIN vs ATL 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	6–22	L	U44.5
Very close	HOU vs MIA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	20–12	W	U46.5
Very close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Very close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Very close	TB vs ARI 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Very close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LWW–W	7-5	58%	3-3	4-3
PIT LWLLW	6-7	46%	3-3	3-3

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; PIT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UUUUO	8-5	62%	6-7
PIT UUOUO	7-6	54%	7-6

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 52% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	6-4 60%
PIT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 3–8 PIT PIT leads · 11 games since 2004 · PIT has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA0.0 →−2.0▼ 2.0#23

PIT+0.5 →−1.3▼ 1.8#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

MIA

Longer bar = better

PIT

#20

Offense

Even

#18

#21

Defense

Even

#19

−0.1 #18

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+0.7 #4

57 plays #29

Pace

Even

55 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #21	23.9 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.39 #14	5.35 #17	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #19	+0.02 #21	Even
Success rate	42% #24	44% #17	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #14	22.8 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.15 #21	5.57 #22	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #17	+0.04 #22	PIT
Success rate	44% #18	47% #25	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	5.2 #10	7.0 #16	12.2 #11	2.1 #31	7.1 #11	9.2 #27
PIT allowed	3.9 #11	5.3 #7	9.2 #7	4.6 #15	10.1 #31	14.7 #31

PIT scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	4.9 #13	8.1 #9	13.0 #9	3.4 #24	7.3 #9	10.7 #20
MIA allowed	3.7 #6	5.4 #8	9.1 #5	6.0 #28	7.7 #25	13.7 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.