Chargers @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sun, Dec 14, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Kansas City Chiefs · Division game

Weather at kickoff18°F1 mphgusts 9DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

9-4 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

6-7 · Power #12

final

Closing spread

KC -5.5

✓ LAC W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 19–24 KC

✗ KC (69%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -5.5

CloseKC -5.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -5.5

no move

CloseKC -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▼ 3

Close41.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -5.5 · unchangedmodel KC -4

model KC -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 50% (107 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -5.5

CloseKC -5.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 5.5-point home favorite against LAC, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 16–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 5.6; 41.2 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs HOU 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	10–20	L	U41.5
Very close	GB vs CHI 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	28–21	W	O44.5
Very close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	HOU vs SF 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	26–15	W	U41.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	22–27	L	O43.5
Close	GB vs MIN 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	23–6	W	U41.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LWLWW	7-6	54%	1-4	2-0
KC LLL–L	5-7	42%	4-3	4-6

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOU	6-7	46%	9-4
KC UUUOU	4-9	31%	6-7

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
KC	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

LAC 23–32 KC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 5 2025	Kansas City Chiefs 21 @ Los Angeles Chargers 27	KC -3.5	LAC W
Dec 8 2024	Los Angeles Chargers 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 19	KC -5.5	LAC W
Sep 29 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 17 @ Los Angeles Chargers 10	KC -7.5	LAC W
Jan 7 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 13 @ Los Angeles Chargers 12	LAC -3.5	KC W
Oct 22 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 31	KC -5.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.5 →+1.3▲ 0.8#13

KC+1.3 →+3.6▲ 2.3#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

LAC

Longer bar = better

#19

Offense

KC better ▶

Defense

◀ LAC better

#15

+0.1 #14

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #16

65 plays #5

Pace

Even

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #18	19.4 #7	KC
Yards / play	5.26 #19	5.42 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #20	+0.01 #17	Even
Success rate	44% #18	44% #15	Even

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #11	20.8 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.58 #9	5.02 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.11 #6	−0.08 #7	Even
Success rate	47% #6	41% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.5 #8	5.8 #26	11.4 #16	5.5 #9	5.8 #22	11.4 #17
KC allowed	4.2 #14	5.9 #11	10.1 #11	3.8 #10	5.5 #8	9.3 #8

KC scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.3 #28	7.6 #9	10.9 #21	5.5 #10	7.6 #9	13.1 #9
LAC allowed	3.8 #7	6.0 #12	9.8 #10	5.1 #20	5.9 #11	11.0 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.