49ers @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sun, Oct 26, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

5-2 · Power #10

final

Final

Houston Texans

2-4 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

✓ HOU W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 19–23 HOU

✓ HOU (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseHOU -3.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -1.5

2 → HOU

CloseHOU -3.5

2 pts toward Houston Texans

Total

Open43.5

▼ 2

Close41.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -1.5 · closed HOU -3.5 · moved 2 toward HOUmodel HOU -2

model HOU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 55% (174 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseHOU -3.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 3.5-point home favorite against SF, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 26–15; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 3.7; 46.2 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	SEA vs HOU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	27–19	W	O41.5
Close	KC vs LAC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings	-5.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	23–20	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF LLWLW	4-3	57%	3-1	2-1
HOU LLWWL	2-4	33%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: SF away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF UOOOU	4-3	57%	5-2
HOU UUUOO	2-4	33%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 4 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
HOU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SF 4–2 HOU SF leads · 6 games since 2005 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+1.8▲ 0.9#11

HOU+0.6 →+2.2▲ 1.6#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

HOU

#16

Offense

◀ SF better

#24

#16

Defense

HOU better ▶

−0.7 #27

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.7 #7

69 plays #1

Pace

◀ SF faster

60 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	SF off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #24	14.7 #1	HOU
Yards / play	5.33 #17	4.73 #6	HOU
EPA / play	+0.02 #17	−0.14 #1	HOU
Success rate	49% #6	40% #5	Even

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	HOU off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #21	19.7 #7	SF
Yards / play	5.04 #23	5.32 #15	SF
EPA / play	−0.03 #22	0.00 #17	SF
Success rate	41% #28	47% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	3.7 #20	7.4 #12	11.1 #17	2.9 #28	6.3 #18	9.1 #27
HOU allowed	5.2 #21	2.3 #1	7.5 #2	5.0 #19	2.2 #1	7.2 #3

HOU scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.8 #19	5.8 #23	9.7 #26	2.7 #31	8.8 #6	11.5 #19
SF allowed	1.0 #2	8.6 #25	9.6 #9	5.7 #25	4.4 #6	10.1 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.