Buccaneers @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sun, Oct 26, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 8 · at New Orleans Saints · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5-2 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

1-6 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

TB -3.5

✓ TB W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 25–22 NO

✓ TB (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -5.5

CloseTB -3.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -5.5

2 → NO

CloseTB -3.5

2 pts toward New Orleans Saints

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Close45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -5.5 · closed TB -3.5 · moved 2 toward NOmodel TB -7.5

model TB -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (108 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -5.5

CloseTB -3.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 3.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 23–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 3.8; 45.6 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DAL @ CAR 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	27–30	L	O45.5
Close	KC @ CLE 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–7	W	U41.5
Close	LAC @ MIA 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	29–27	L	O45.5
Close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	LAC @ NYG 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	18–21	L	U43.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB LLWWL	4-3	57%	3-1	1-1
NO LWWLL	2-5	29%	1-3	1-5

Venue/role: TB away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OOOOU	4-3	57%	5-2
NO OOUUU	3-4	43%	1-6

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
NO	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

TB 23–28 NO NO leads · 51 games since 1999 · NO has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 5 2024	New Orleans Saints 19 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27	TB -14.5	NO W
Oct 13 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51 @ New Orleans Saints 27	TB -3.5	TB W
Dec 31 2023	New Orleans Saints 23 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13	TB -2.5	NO W
Oct 1 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 @ New Orleans Saints 9	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+1.2 →+1.7▲ 0.5#12

NO−1.6 →−4.2▼ 2.6#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

#16

Offense

◀ TB better

#26

#18

Defense

◀ TB better

#23

+0.6 #8

Turnovers

◀ TB better

+0.1 #13

62 plays #15

Pace

Even

62 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #13	26.6 #27	TB
Yards / play	5.47 #15	5.40 #17	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	+0.04 #23	TB
Success rate	42% #24	46% #23	Even

When NO has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	NO off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	17.9 #29	25.0 #22	TB
Yards / play	4.77 #28	5.42 #19	TB
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	−0.02 #13	TB
Success rate	43% #19	44% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.3 #24	9.0 #4	12.3 #12	7.4 #4	5.1 #24	12.6 #13
NO allowed	9.7 #32	10.4 #29	20.1 #32	3.6 #8	2.9 #2	6.4 #1

NO scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	2.3 #32	8.0 #8	10.3 #22	3.3 #28	4.3 #29	7.6 #30
TB allowed	6.3 #28	6.1 #16	12.4 #24	4.9 #15	7.7 #20	12.6 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.