Bears @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sun, Oct 26, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Baltimore Ravens

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Chicago Bears

4-2 · Power #16

final

Final

Baltimore Ravens

1-5 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

✓ BAL W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 24–27 BAL

✓ BAL (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -6.5

CloseBAL -2.5

Total50.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -6.5

4 → CHI

CloseBAL -2.5

4 pts toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open50.5

▼ 6

Close44.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -6.5 · closed BAL -2.5 · moved 4 toward CHImodel BAL -5.5

model BAL -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (173 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -6.5

CloseBAL -2.5

Total50.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like BAL as a 2.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 30–16; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 5 similar games. 46 points went over 44.5, as in 3 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 4100%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 2.9; 42.2 points a game (usually 44). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MIN vs NYJ 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation	-3	27–22	W	O44
Loose	IND vs TB 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	27–20	W	O44.5
Loose	LV vs DEN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-3	32–23	W	O45.5
Loose	TEN vs IND 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	19–10	W	U43
Loose	LAC vs TEN 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation	-3	17–14	P	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI LWWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-1
BAL WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-3	1-3

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUOOU	4-2	67%	4-2
BAL OOOOU	5-1	83%	1-5

Went over in Q4. Of 190 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
BAL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CHI 3–4 BAL BAL leads · 7 games since 2001 · BAL has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−1.4 →−0.5▲ 0.9#21

BAL+3.6 →+0.4▼ 3.2#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CHI

Longer bar = better

BAL

#15

Offense

Even

#17

#23

Defense

◀ CHI better

#30

+1.8 #1

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

−1.2 #31

62 plays #14

Pace

◀ CHI faster

54 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #10	32.3 #32	CHI
Yards / play	5.57 #14	5.67 #27	CHI
EPA / play	+0.03 #16	+0.16 #30	CHI
Success rate	44% #18	49% #30	CHI

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #15	25.8 #25	BAL
Yards / play	5.71 #11	6.19 #32	BAL
EPA / play	−0.04 #23	−0.05 #6	CHI
Success rate	43% #20	47% #27	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	6.7 #4	8.3 #6	15.0 #3	4.5 #18	5.8 #20	10.3 #21
BAL allowed	4.0 #14	8.8 #27	12.8 #24	9.0 #32	10.5 #30	19.5 #32

BAL scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	4.3 #15	5.7 #24	10.0 #23	6.8 #4	7.2 #12	14.0 #6
CHI allowed	4.0 #14	8.7 #26	12.7 #23	5.7 #24	7.5 #21	13.2 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.