Packers @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sun, Oct 26, 2025, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff48°F6 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

4-1-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

GB -2.5

✓ GB W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 24–22 PIT

✓ GB (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -3.5

CloseGB -2.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -3.5

1 → PIT

CloseGB -2.5

1 pt toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -3.5 · closed GB -2.5 · moved 1 toward PITmodel GB -4.5

model GB -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (124 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (40 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -3.5

CloseGB -2.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 2.5-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 35–25; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 45.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 2.8; 49.8 points a game (usually 44). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Very close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Very close	BUF @ ATL 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-3.5	14–24	L	U49.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Very close	MIN @ SEA 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	27–24	W	O43.5
Very close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Close	BUF @ NYJ 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	23–20	W	O42.5
Close	KC @ JAX 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	28–31	L	O45.5
Close	MIN @ CHI 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	30–27	W	O39.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WLLLL	2-4	33%	0-3	2-4
PIT LWWWL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UUOOO	3-3	50%	4-1-1
PIT OUOUO	4-2	67%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 181 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	5-4-1 56%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
PIT	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GB 3–5 PIT PIT leads · 8 games since 2005 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 12 2023	Green Bay Packers 19 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 23	PIT -3	PIT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+2.2 →+3.3▲ 1.1#3

PIT+0.5 →−1.0▼ 1.5#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

PIT

Offense

◀ GB better

#12

Defense

◀ GB better

#20

0.0 #15

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+0.8 #6

61 plays #21

Pace

◀ GB faster

55 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #8	23.3 #20	GB
Yards / play	5.67 #12	5.40 #18	GB
EPA / play	+0.17 #4	+0.05 #23	GB
Success rate	49% #3	45% #20	GB

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #12	20.8 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.46 #16	4.48 #1	GB
EPA / play	+0.10 #8	+0.01 #18	PIT
Success rate	46% #11	43% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	4.0 #16	6.5 #20	10.5 #22	4.0 #19	11.3 #1	15.3 #4
PIT allowed	3.2 #6	6.7 #19	9.8 #9	3.3 #5	10.2 #28	13.5 #23

PIT scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	6.2 #7	6.8 #17	13.0 #9	3.5 #24	8.5 #5	12.0 #17
GB allowed	0.5 #1	5.3 #9	5.8 #1	4.0 #10	10.5 #30	14.5 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.