Steelers @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Thu, Oct 16, 2025, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Cincinnati Bengals · Division game

Weather at kickoff59°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-1 · Power #19

final

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

2-4 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

✓ CIN W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 26–21 CIN

✗ PIT (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -5.5

ClosePIT -5.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -5.5

no move

ClosePIT -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▲ 2

Close44.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -5.5 · unchangedmodel PIT -1.5

model PIT -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 55% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -5.5

ClosePIT -5.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 5.5-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CIN won 33–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.6 against an average line of 5.3; 46.8 points a game (usually 45.2). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ CAR 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Close	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5
Close	ATL @ LV 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & spread	-5.5	15–9	W	U43.5
Close	ARI @ CAR 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & spread	-5.5	30–36	L	O47.5
Close	KC @ NYG 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-5.5	22–9	W	U44.5
Close	NYJ @ JAX 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation	-3.5	32–25	W	O41.5
Close	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	0–30	L	U43.5
Close	LAC @ MIA 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	29–27	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2
CIN WLLLW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: PIT away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT OOUOU	3-2	60%	4-1
CIN OOUOO	4-2	67%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 184 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
CIN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

PIT 41–16 CIN PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2024	Cincinnati Bengals 19 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 17	CIN -2.5	PIT W
Dec 1 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 44 @ Cincinnati Bengals 38	CIN -3.5	PIT W
Dec 23 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 11 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 34	CIN -3	PIT W
Nov 26 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 16 @ Cincinnati Bengals 10	PIT -2	PIT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT+0.5 →−0.6▼ 1.1#18

CIN+0.5 →−3.5▼ 4.0#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

PIT

Longer bar = better

CIN

#16

Offense

◀ PIT better

#30

#13

Defense

◀ PIT better

#30

+1.4 #2

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−0.7 #28

55 plays #30

Pace

Even

55 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: PIT offense

	PIT off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #14	30.5 #30	PIT
Yards / play	5.09 #23	5.91 #29	PIT
EPA / play	+0.05 #13	+0.13 #29	PIT
Success rate	45% #15	50% #30	PIT

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	CIN off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #29	21.4 #16	PIT
Yards / play	4.29 #30	5.17 #10	PIT
EPA / play	−0.18 #31	−0.01 #10	PIT
Success rate	40% #30	44% #16	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	6.0 #8	7.6 #11	13.6 #9	2.8 #29	7.4 #13	10.2 #21
CIN allowed	5.8 #24	11.8 #31	17.7 #31	6.8 #29	6.0 #11	12.8 #23

CIN scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	2.8 #27	2.7 #32	5.5 #31	4.0 #20	7.7 #11	11.7 #15
PIT allowed	3.8 #8	4.6 #5	8.4 #5	3.4 #5	9.6 #27	13.0 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.