Dolphins @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sun, Oct 19, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Cleveland Browns

Weather at kickoff62°F19 mphgusts 26Wet0.1 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

1-5 · Power #28

final

Final

Cleveland Browns

1-5 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

✓ CLE W

Total

35.5

▲ Over · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 18–20 CLE

✓ CLE (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLE -2.5

CloseCLE -2.5

Total40.5 → 35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLE -2.5

no move

CloseCLE -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open40.5

▼ 5

Close35.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLE -2.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -0.5

model MIA -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (166 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLE -2.5

CloseCLE -2.5

Total40.5 → 35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 2.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 31–6; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points went over 35.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.7 against an average line of 2.9; 40.7 points a game (usually 44). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CAR vs DAL 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & rest	-2.5	14–30	L	O41.5
Loose	NYJ vs WSH 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	30–28	L	O36
Loose	CHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	36–10	W	O39.5
Loose	NE vs WSH 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–20	L	U40
Loose	DEN vs ARI 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	24–15	W	O37
Loose	DEN vs LV 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	34–18	W	O35.5
Loose	TEN vs CAR 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–10	W	U36
Loose	TEN vs NE 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	20–17	L	U38.5
Loose	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5
Loose	LAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	17–27	L	O38.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LWWLW	3-3	50%	1-2	2-1
CLE LWLLL	2-4	33%	2-0	—

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; CLE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OOOOO	5-1	83%	1-5
CLE OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Went over in Q4. Of 31 earlier overs in games with totals 32.5–38.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
CLE	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIA 5–6 CLE CLE leads · 11 games since 2004 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 29 2024	Miami Dolphins 20 @ Cleveland Browns 3	MIA -3.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA0.0 →−3.3▼ 3.3#28

CLE−2.1 →−2.9▼ 0.8#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MIA

Longer bar = better

CLE

#19

Offense

◀ MIA better

#32

#31

Defense

CLE better ▶

#10

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

−0.7 #28

54 plays #32

Pace

CLE faster ▶

68 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	MIA off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #18	24.3 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.39 #18	4.66 #4	CLE
EPA / play	+0.05 #13	0.00 #11	Even
Success rate	42% #28	41% #3	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	13.7 #32	29.0 #29	Even
Yards / play	4.15 #31	6.35 #31	Even
EPA / play	−0.17 #31	+0.22 #32	Even
Success rate	35% #32	52% #32	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	3.3 #24	8.0 #9	11.3 #20	3.3 #27	7.7 #13	11.0 #19
CLE allowed	4.5 #17	6.0 #16	10.5 #15	5.7 #25	8.2 #21	13.8 #25

CLE scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	2.3 #30	3.2 #31	5.5 #32	4.3 #16	3.8 #30	8.2 #30
MIA allowed	4.7 #19	7.2 #22	11.8 #19	7.0 #30	10.2 #27	17.2 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.