Colts @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sun, Oct 19, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff80°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

5-1 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

4-2 · Power #15

final

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

✓ IND W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 23–25 LAC

✗ LAC (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -1.5

CloseLAC -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -1.5

1 → LAC

CloseLAC -2.5

1 pt toward Los Angeles Chargers

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -1.5 · closed LAC -2.5 · moved 1 toward LACmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (169 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (82 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -1.5

CloseLAC -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 2.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 38–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.7 against an average line of 3; 50.7 points a game (usually 44). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Very close	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Very close	LAR vs IND 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–20	W	U49.5
Very close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Close	KC vs DET 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	30–17	W	U51.5
Close	SF vs JAX 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–26	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WWLWL	4-2	67%	1-1	1-1
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	2-3

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OOUUO	3-3	50%	5-1
LAC UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Went over in Q3. Of 113 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
LAC	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IND 5–8 LAC LAC leads · 13 games since 1999 · IND has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.8 →+2.4▲ 3.2#7

LAC+0.5 →+1.2▲ 0.7#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

IND

Longer bar = better

LAC

Offense

◀ IND better

#19

#13

Defense

LAC better ▶

+0.8 #4

Turnovers

◀ IND better

−0.2 #16

60 plays #19

Pace

LAC faster ▶

64 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #1	20.8 #12	IND
Yards / play	6.26 #2	5.16 #9	IND
EPA / play	+0.19 #1	−0.02 #9	IND
Success rate	51% #1	41% #6	IND

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	LAC off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #23	19.3 #4	IND
Yards / play	5.66 #13	5.34 #14	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #20	−0.04 #7	IND
Success rate	44% #18	48% #26	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	6.0 #9	11.3 #2	17.3 #1	7.2 #2	7.8 #11	15.0 #4
LAC allowed	2.8 #4	6.3 #18	9.2 #9	5.7 #25	6.0 #13	11.7 #18

LAC scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	6.0 #9	5.5 #24	11.5 #14	5.8 #9	3.8 #31	9.7 #21
IND allowed	3.8 #11	5.0 #6	8.8 #7	4.7 #19	5.8 #11	10.5 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.