Patriots @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sun, Oct 19, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Tennessee Titans

Weather at kickoff60°F17 mphgusts 40Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

4-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

1-5 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

NE -6.5

✓ NE W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 22–16 TEN

✓ NE (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -6.5

CloseNE -6.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -6.5

no move

CloseNE -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -6.5 · unchangedmodel NE -6.5 matches the line

model NE -6.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 44% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -6.5

CloseNE -6.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 6.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 31–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 6.1; 49 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	17–34	L	O41.5
Very close	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5
Very close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Very close	LAC @ NYG 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	18–21	L	U43.5
Very close	IND @ NYG 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	33–45	L	O40.5
Very close	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Very close	LAR @ TEN 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	33–19	W	O40.5
Close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	0–30	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WLWWW	4-2	67%	3-0	2-1
TEN LLLWL	2-4	33%	0-2	2-4

Venue/role: NE away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE OUOUU	2-4	33%	4-2
TEN OOUOU	3-3	50%	1-5

Went over in Q3. Of 148 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
TEN	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NE 9–4 TEN NE leads · 13 games since 2002 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 3 2024	New England Patriots 17 @ Tennessee Titans 20	TEN -3.5	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−2.3 →−0.8▲ 1.5#21

TEN−1.8 →−5.2▼ 3.4#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

TEN

#12

Offense

◀ NE better

#32

#21

Defense

Even

#22

0.0 #14

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #15

59 plays #22

Pace

Even

59 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #12	26.8 #26	NE
Yards / play	5.66 #14	5.58 #21	NE
EPA / play	+0.09 #10	+0.07 #26	NE
Success rate	46% #12	43% #13	Even

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	TEN off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	13.8 #31	20.0 #9	NE
Yards / play	3.94 #32	5.69 #25	NE
EPA / play	−0.22 #32	+0.04 #22	NE
Success rate	38% #31	48% #27	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	7.2 #5	7.5 #10	14.7 #6	4.2 #19	6.2 #20	10.3 #20
TEN allowed	7.8 #31	5.0 #5	12.8 #24	5.7 #25	8.3 #22	14.0 #26

TEN scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	1.5 #32	4.2 #27	5.7 #31	2.7 #30	5.5 #24	8.2 #30
NE allowed	4.3 #15	5.7 #13	10.0 #13	3.8 #11	6.2 #14	10.0 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.