Rams vs Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sun, Oct 19, 2025, 9:30 AM EDTWeek 7 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff60°F10 mphgusts 21Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

4-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · Power #7

final

Closing spread

LAR -3.5

✓ LAR W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 24–20 JAX

✓ LAR (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -3.5

CloseLAR -3.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -3.5

no move

CloseLAR -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -3.5 · unchangedmodel LAR -3.5 matches the line

model LAR -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -3.5

CloseLAR -3.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like LAR as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against JAX, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 35–7; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 5 similar games. 42 points stayed under 43.5, as in 3 of 5.

Favorite won

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.8 against an average line of 3.6; 36.8 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIN vs PIT 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	21–24	L	O41.5
Loose	MIN vs NYJ 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Loose	TB vs SEA 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	21–16	W	U45
Loose	MIN vs CLE 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3.5	21–17	W	O35.5
Loose	DEN vs NYJ 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	13–11	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LAR WLWLW	4-2	67%	—	4-1
JAX LWWWL	4-2	67%	—	2-2

Venue/role: LAR neutral, as favorite; JAX neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR OOUOU	3-3	50%	4-2
JAX OUOOU	3-3	50%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 52% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
JAX	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAR 5–1 JAX LAR leads · 6 games since 2005 · LAR has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.2 →+2.7▲ 2.5#4

JAX−2.1 →−0.7▲ 1.4#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

LAR

Longer bar = better

JAX

Offense

◀ LAR better

#18

Defense

◀ LAR better

#13

+0.5 #10

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+1.3 #2

61 plays #17

Pace

JAX faster ▶

64 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #16	20.0 #8	JAX
Yards / play	6.13 #3	5.72 #26	LAR
EPA / play	+0.07 #12	−0.05 #6	JAX
Success rate	50% #4	43% #12	LAR

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	JAX off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #17	18.3 #3	LAR
Yards / play	5.17 #22	4.63 #3	LAR
EPA / play	+0.03 #16	−0.09 #4	LAR
Success rate	45% #16	43% #10	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	3.3 #24	6.5 #19	9.8 #26	7.5 #2	6.0 #21	13.5 #11
JAX allowed	3.3 #6	4.8 #5	8.2 #3	4.8 #21	7.0 #18	11.8 #19

JAX scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	3.8 #20	8.5 #6	12.3 #10	5.5 #11	5.3 #24	10.8 #20
LAR allowed	3.8 #9	6.0 #15	9.8 #12	3.3 #4	4.7 #6	8.0 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.