Texans @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Mon, Oct 20, 2025, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Seattle Seahawks

Weather at kickoff55°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

2-3 · Power #3

final

Final

Seattle Seahawks

4-2 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

SEA -3.5

✓ SEA W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 19–23 SEA

✓ SEA (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -2.5

CloseSEA -3.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -2.5

1 → SEA

CloseSEA -3.5

1 pt toward Seattle Seahawks

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -2.5 · closed SEA -3.5 · moved 1 toward SEAmodel SEA -1

model SEA -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (172 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (35 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -2.5

CloseSEA -3.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 3.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 27–19; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 4; 56.6 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 7 overs, 6 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Close	PHI vs DEN 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	17–21	L	U44.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Close	KC vs LAC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-5.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	CIN vs PIT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	38–44	L	O46.5
Close	SEA vs TB 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	35–38	L	O45.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-2	0-2
SEA WWWLW	4-2	67%	1-2	3-1

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUUUO	1-4	20%	2-3
SEA OOUOU	3-3	50%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 152 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
SEA	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

HOU 1–5 SEA SEA leads · 6 games since 2005 · SEA has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.6 →+2.6▲ 2.0#6

SEA−0.1 →+2.2▲ 2.3#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

HOU

Longer bar = better

SEA

#19

Offense

SEA better ▶

Defense

◀ HOU better

#10

+0.2 #12

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.2 #18

59 plays #24

Pace

◀ HOU faster

57 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	HOU off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #20	19.5 #6	SEA
Yards / play	5.37 #18	4.83 #6	SEA
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	+0.01 #17	Even
Success rate	42% #23	42% #9	SEA

When SEA has the ball

Even matchup

	SEA off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #5	12.2 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.29 #2	4.73 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #9	−0.11 #1	HOU
Success rate	46% #12	41% #7	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.6 #15	5.8 #22	10.4 #21	2.0 #32	9.2 #5	11.2 #19
SEA allowed	4.2 #16	4.0 #2	8.2 #5	3.0 #3	8.3 #25	11.3 #14

SEA scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	5.8 #9	9.0 #4	14.8 #5	6.2 #7	6.7 #17	12.8 #12
HOU allowed	3.4 #9	2.8 #1	6.2 #2	3.4 #8	2.6 #1	6.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.