Seahawks @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sun, Nov 2, 2025, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff53°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Seattle Seahawks

5-2 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

3-5 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

✓ SEA W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

SEA 25–23 WSH

✓ SEA (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -3.5

CloseSEA -2.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -3.5

1 → WSH

CloseSEA -2.5

1 pt toward Washington Commanders

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Close47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -3.5 · closed SEA -2.5 · moved 1 toward WSHmodel SEA -1

model SEA -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (130 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -3.5

CloseSEA -2.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 2.5-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 38–14; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 47.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 2.4; 42.1 points a game (usually 44). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Very close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Very close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	MIN @ SEA 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	27–24	W	O43.5
Close	PHI @ KC 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar team ratings & total	-1.5	20–17	W	U46.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	NE @ NO 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	25–19	W	U46.5
Close	KC @ PIT 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	29–10	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA WWLWW	5-2	71%	3-0	4-1
WSH LWLLL	3-5	38%	2-1	1-4

Venue/role: SEA away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA OUOUO	4-3	57%	5-2
WSH OUOOU	4-4	50%	3-5

Went over in Q4. Of 151 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
WSH	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SEA 7–9 WSH WSH leads · 16 games since 2001 · WSH has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 12 2023	Washington Commanders 26 @ Seattle Seahawks 29	SEA -6	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA−0.1 →+2.2▲ 2.3#10

WSH+0.7 →−0.3▼ 1.0#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

SEA

Longer bar = better

WSH

#11

Offense

◀ SEA better

#14

Defense

◀ SEA better

#23

−0.6 #27

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #28

58 plays #25

Pace

Even

58 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SEA offense

	SEA off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #5	24.8 #22	SEA
Yards / play	6.03 #3	5.93 #29	SEA
EPA / play	+0.03 #15	+0.08 #25	SEA
Success rate	45% #19	44% #15	Even

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	WSH off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #18	19.4 #6	SEA
Yards / play	5.74 #11	4.65 #3	SEA
EPA / play	+0.02 #17	−0.04 #8	SEA
Success rate	47% #9	41% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SEA scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	7.0 #2	7.7 #10	14.7 #5	7.1 #5	5.7 #22	12.9 #13
WSH allowed	6.6 #29	6.0 #12	12.6 #24	6.4 #26	5.8 #11	12.1 #19

WSH scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.8 #30	8.0 #8	10.8 #19	5.9 #10	6.8 #17	12.6 #15
SEA allowed	3.6 #9	4.3 #2	7.9 #3	3.4 #6	8.1 #22	11.6 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.