Falcons @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sun, Nov 2, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff52°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

3-4 · Power #20

final

Final

New England Patriots

6-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

NE -5.5

✓ ATL W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 19–24 NE

✓ NE (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -5.5

CloseNE -5.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -5.5

no move

CloseNE -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -5.5 · unchangedmodel NE -3.5

model NE -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 53% (92 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -5.5

CloseNE -5.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 5.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 10, covered 10, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 24–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 69%

Favorite covered

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins above normal, covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 15.1 against an average line of 5.3; 50.7 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Very close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Very close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Very close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	30–12	W	U43.5
Very close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Very close	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5
Very close	NE vs CLE 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	32–13	W	O40.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	27–14	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LWWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	2-0
NE WWWWW	6-2	75%	2-2	4-1

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UOUUO	2-5	29%	3-4
NE OUUOO	4-4	50%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 182 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
NE	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ATL 0–8 NE NE leads · 8 games since 2001 · NE has won the last 8 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.4 →−0.2▲ 0.2#16

NE−2.3 →+0.7▲ 3.0#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ATL

Longer bar = better

#23

Offense

NE better ▶

#15

Defense

Even

#12

+0.3 #11

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #13

63 plays #12

Pace

◀ ATL faster

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	ATL off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	17.1 #28	18.3 #4	NE
Yards / play	5.46 #15	5.42 #18	Even
EPA / play	−0.05 #27	−0.05 #8	NE
Success rate	44% #21	45% #18	Even

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #8	22.0 #13	NE
Yards / play	5.82 #8	4.91 #7	Even
EPA / play	+0.11 #7	−0.01 #16	NE
Success rate	47% #9	46% #23	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.3 #13	3.7 #31	9.0 #27	3.9 #20	4.3 #29	8.1 #29
NE allowed	5.4 #24	4.6 #3	10.0 #10	2.9 #3	5.4 #10	8.3 #4

NE scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	6.1 #7	8.1 #6	14.3 #6	7.5 #5	4.9 #27	12.4 #16
ATL allowed	3.0 #5	7.0 #20	10.0 #10	5.7 #22	6.3 #16	12.0 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.