Falcons vs Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sun, Nov 9, 2025, 9:30 AM ESTWeek 10 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff45°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

3-5 · Power #20

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

7-2 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -5.5

✓ IND W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 21–26 IND

✓ IND (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -6.5

CloseIND -5.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -6.5

1 → ATL

CloseIND -5.5

1 pt toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -6.5 · closed IND -5.5 · moved 1 toward ATLmodel IND -3

model IND -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 43% (58 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -6.5

CloseIND -5.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like IND as a 5.5-point neutral-site favorite against ATL, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 31–25; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 56 points went over 48.5, as in 0 of 3.

Favorite won

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12 against an average line of 4.2; 35.3 points a game (usually 45.5). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DEN vs NYJ 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	13–11	L	U43.5
Loose	LAR vs JAX 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	35–7	W	U43.5
Loose	MIN vs NYJ 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	23–17	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ATL WWLLW	4-4	50%	—	3-0
IND WLWWL	6-3	67%	—	4-2

Venue/role: ATL neutral, as underdog; IND neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OUUOO	3-5	38%	3-5
IND UOOOU	5-4	56%	7-2

Went over in Q4. Of 123 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
IND	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ATL 2–6 IND IND leads · 8 games since 2001 · IND has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 24 2023	Indianapolis Colts 10 @ Atlanta Falcons 29	ATL -2.5	ATL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.4 →−0.2▲ 0.2#17

IND−0.8 →+3.0▲ 3.8#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ATL

Longer bar = better

IND

#23

Offense

IND better ▶

#14

Defense

Even

#12

+0.5 #8

Turnovers

◀ ATL better

+0.3 #12

62 plays #15

Pace

◀ ATL faster

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	ATL off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	17.9 #28	20.1 #7	IND
Yards / play	5.45 #14	5.22 #12	Even
EPA / play	−0.04 #27	−0.04 #7	IND
Success rate	43% #22	46% #22	Even

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #1	22.3 #14	IND
Yards / play	6.33 #1	4.90 #7	IND
EPA / play	+0.19 #1	−0.01 #14	IND
Success rate	51% #1	46% #19	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.5 #10	4.1 #30	9.6 #24	3.4 #24	4.9 #26	8.3 #29
IND allowed	2.9 #5	6.0 #13	8.9 #6	4.7 #16	6.6 #17	11.2 #15

IND scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	6.6 #5	10.2 #2	16.8 #1	8.0 #2	7.4 #10	15.4 #3
ATL allowed	3.5 #9	7.9 #22	11.4 #19	5.4 #21	5.5 #11	10.9 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.