Panthers @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sun, Nov 16, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Atlanta Falcons · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

5-5 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

Atlanta Falcons

3-6 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

ATL -4.5

✓ CAR W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 19–23 ATL

✗ ATL (66%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -4.5

CloseATL -4.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -4.5

no move

CloseATL -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -4.5 · unchangedmodel ATL -6

model ATL -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (122 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -4.5

CloseATL -4.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 4.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CAR won 30–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 4.5; 43.9 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND vs TEN 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	38–30	W	O43.5
Very close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Very close	CAR vs NO 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	7–17	L	U38.5
Close	IND vs JAX 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	26–23	L	O45.5
Close	TEN vs NE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	20–17	L	U38.5
Close	CHI vs NO 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	26–14	W	U43.5
Close	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Close	ATL vs MIA 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR WWLWL	6-4	60%	3-2	6-3
ATL WLLWL	4-5	44%	2-2	1-4

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OUOUU	5-5	50%	5-5
ATL UUOOO	4-5	44%	3-6

Went over in Q4. Of 163 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ATL	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CAR 22–33 ATL ATL leads · 55 games since 1999 · CAR has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2025	Atlanta Falcons 0 @ Carolina Panthers 30	ATL -4.5	CAR W
Jan 5 2024	Carolina Panthers 44 @ Atlanta Falcons 38	ATL -7.5	CAR W
Oct 13 2024	Atlanta Falcons 38 @ Carolina Panthers 20	ATL -6.5	ATL W
Dec 17 2023	Atlanta Falcons 7 @ Carolina Panthers 9	ATL -2.5	CAR W
Sep 10 2023	Carolina Panthers 10 @ Atlanta Falcons 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−3.5 →−4.1▼ 0.6#31

ATL−0.4 →−0.8▼ 0.4#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CAR

Longer bar = better

ATL

#25

Offense

ATL better ▶

#21

#16

Defense

Even

#18

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

ATL better ▶

+0.6 #8

62 plays #14

Pace

◀ CAR faster

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	CAR off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #28	23.2 #16	ATL
Yards / play	4.79 #29	5.19 #12	ATL
EPA / play	−0.06 #27	+0.02 #19	ATL
Success rate	45% #16	47% #25	CAR

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: CAR defense

	ATL off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #27	22.2 #12	CAR
Yards / play	5.38 #15	5.57 #22	ATL
EPA / play	−0.04 #25	+0.08 #24	Even
Success rate	44% #18	42% #6	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.2 #29	4.0 #30	7.2 #31	3.5 #22	7.0 #14	10.5 #24
ATL allowed	4.6 #17	7.0 #19	11.6 #18	4.8 #19	6.2 #13	11.0 #12

ATL scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.7 #9	4.4 #28	10.1 #24	3.3 #24	5.2 #24	8.6 #28
CAR allowed	3.2 #5	10.8 #31	14.0 #26	4.2 #13	4.0 #4	8.2 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.