Bengals @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sun, Nov 16, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Pittsburgh Steelers · Division game

Weather at kickoff46°F16 mphgusts 38DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

3-6 · Power #24

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

5-4 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

✓ PIT W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 21–26 PIT

✓ PIT (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -5.5

ClosePIT -5.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -5.5

no move

ClosePIT -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▼ 3

Close47.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -5.5 · unchangedmodel PIT -4.5

model PIT -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 52% (95 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -5.5

ClosePIT -5.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 5.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 34–12; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.7 against an average line of 6.1; 51.5 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	24–20	L	U44.5
Close	ATL vs MIA 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & spread	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	SF vs DAL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	30–24	W	O47.5
Close	PHI vs ATL 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total	-5.5	21–22	L	U46.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Loose	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · loose	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Loose	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & season form	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5
Loose	CHI vs NO 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	26–14	W	U43.5
Loose	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & spread	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LWWLL	3-6	33%	1-3	2-4
PIT WLLWL	4-5	44%	2-2	2-3

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; PIT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OOOOO	7-2	78%	3-6
PIT UOOUU	5-4	56%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
PIT	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CIN 16–41 PIT PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 16 2025	Pittsburgh Steelers 31 @ Cincinnati Bengals 33	PIT -5.5	CIN W
Jan 4 2024	Cincinnati Bengals 19 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 17	CIN -2.5	PIT W
Dec 1 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 44 @ Cincinnati Bengals 38	CIN -3.5	PIT W
Dec 23 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 11 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 34	CIN -3	PIT W
Nov 26 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 16 @ Cincinnati Bengals 10	PIT -2	PIT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+0.5 →−3.9▼ 4.4#28

PIT+0.5 →−1.8▼ 2.3#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CIN

Longer bar = better

PIT

#18

Offense

Even

#20

#32

Defense

PIT better ▶

#21

−0.6 #27

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+0.7 #6

58 plays #23

Pace

◀ CIN faster

55 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #13	24.4 #21	CIN
Yards / play	5.29 #19	5.44 #20	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #23	+0.04 #22	Even
Success rate	45% #15	46% #20	CIN

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: PIT offense

	PIT off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #16	33.3 #32	PIT
Yards / play	5.10 #24	6.40 #32	PIT
EPA / play	0.00 #20	+0.22 #32	PIT
Success rate	43% #21	52% #32	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.1 #17	6.3 #21	10.4 #22	4.6 #18	9.0 #6	13.6 #7
PIT allowed	3.9 #12	5.6 #6	9.4 #7	3.3 #5	11.7 #32	15.0 #30

PIT scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	4.8 #13	7.9 #8	12.7 #9	2.7 #28	8.2 #8	10.9 #21
CIN allowed	5.4 #23	10.8 #30	16.2 #29	7.2 #32	9.9 #28	17.1 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.