Texans @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sun, Nov 16, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Tennessee Titans · Division game

Weather at kickoff65°F7 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

4-5 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

1-8 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

HOU -5.5

✓ TEN W

Total

37.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 23–17 TEN

✓ HOU (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -7.5

CloseHOU -5.5

Total38.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -7.5

2 → TEN

CloseHOU -5.5

2 pts toward Tennessee Titans

Total

Open38.5

▼ 1

Close37.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -7.5 · closed HOU -5.5 · moved 2 toward TENmodel HOU -11

model HOU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 55% (58 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 30% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -7.5

CloseHOU -5.5

Total38.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 5.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 16–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 37.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 6; 45.3 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NE @ TEN 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form	-6.5	31–13	W	O41.5
Loose	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & season form	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Loose	LAC @ NYG 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-5.5	18–21	L	U43.5
Loose	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Loose	LAR @ TEN 2025 · Week 2 · loose	-5.5	33–19	W	O40.5
Loose	KC @ CLE 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	21–7	W	U41.5
Loose	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	17–34	L	O41.5
Loose	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & situation	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5
Loose	GB @ NYG 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	22–24	L	O37

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WLWLW	4-5	44%	1-3	4-2
TEN WLLLW	3-6	33%	1-3	3-6

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOUUO	3-6	33%	4-5
TEN OUOOO	6-3	67%	1-8

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 56% of games with totals 34.5–40.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
TEN	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

HOU 25–24 TEN HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2025	Tennessee Titans 0 @ Houston Texans 26	HOU -7.5	HOU W
Jan 5 2024	Houston Texans 23 @ Tennessee Titans 14	TEN -2.5	HOU W
Nov 24 2024	Tennessee Titans 32 @ Houston Texans 27	HOU -7.5	TEN W
Dec 31 2023	Tennessee Titans 3 @ Houston Texans 26	HOU -5.5	HOU W
Dec 17 2023	Houston Texans 19 @ Tennessee Titans 16	TEN -3	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.6 →+3.7▲ 3.1#4

TEN−1.8 →−6.3▼ 4.5#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

HOU

Longer bar = better

TEN

#22

Offense

◀ HOU better

#32

Defense

◀ HOU better

#27

+0.7 #7

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.3 #20

64 plays #8

Pace

◀ HOU faster

57 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #19	28.6 #30	HOU
Yards / play	5.16 #23	5.84 #26	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #18	+0.12 #29	HOU
Success rate	42% #26	46% #21	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	TEN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	14.4 #32	16.7 #1	HOU
Yards / play	4.26 #31	4.63 #2	HOU
EPA / play	−0.21 #32	−0.14 #1	HOU
Success rate	38% #31	39% #3	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.2 #28	7.4 #12	10.7 #20	2.9 #27	9.1 #5	12.0 #14
TEN allowed	7.4 #31	7.1 #21	14.6 #27	6.9 #30	7.1 #19	14.0 #24

TEN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.7 #20	4.2 #29	7.9 #30	1.8 #32	4.8 #27	6.6 #31
HOU allowed	4.6 #17	4.2 #1	8.8 #4	5.2 #20	2.7 #1	7.9 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.