Chargers @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sun, Nov 16, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff77°F12 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

7-3 · Power #15

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

5-4 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

✓ JAX W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 23–20 JAX

✗ LAC (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -1.5

CloseLAC -2.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -1.5

1 → LAC

CloseLAC -2.5

1 pt toward Los Angeles Chargers

Total

Open44.5

▼ 2

Close42.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -1.5 · closed LAC -2.5 · moved 1 toward LACmodel LAC -4.5

model LAC -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (132 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (96 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -1.5

CloseLAC -2.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 2.5-point road favorite at JAX, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 35–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 42.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.3 against an average line of 2.7; 49.9 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ HOU 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	12–32	L	O41.5
Very close	SF @ MIA 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-1.5	17–29	L	O44.5
Very close	GB @ PIT 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	35–25	W	O45.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Very close	MIN @ CHI 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	30–27	W	O39.5
Close	PHI @ TB 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–25	W	O43.5
Close	BUF @ SEA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	31–10	W	U45.5
Close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LLWLW	5-5	50%	1-3	4-5
JAX WLLLL	4-5	44%	3-1	2-4

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; JAX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OOOOU	5-5	50%	7-3
JAX OUUOO	5-4	56%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
JAX	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAC 9–6 JAX LAC leads · 15 games since 2003 · JAX has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.5 →+2.3▲ 1.8#10

JAX−2.1 →−1.2▲ 0.9#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

LAC

Longer bar = better

JAX

#13

Offense

◀ LAC better

#20

Defense

◀ LAC better

#19

−0.1 #17

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+0.9 #2

66 plays #1

Pace

Even

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAC offense

	LAC off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #14	24.4 #20	LAC
Yards / play	5.58 #13	5.58 #23	LAC
EPA / play	+0.04 #14	+0.01 #15	Even
Success rate	46% #11	45% #16	LAC

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	JAX off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #18	20.3 #8	LAC
Yards / play	4.96 #25	5.09 #9	LAC
EPA / play	−0.01 #21	−0.05 #7	LAC
Success rate	44% #17	41% #4	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.5 #10	7.0 #17	12.5 #11	5.5 #12	6.0 #22	11.5 #18
JAX allowed	3.8 #9	5.8 #9	9.6 #8	3.6 #7	10.7 #30	14.2 #25

JAX scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	3.7 #20	7.1 #16	10.8 #19	5.0 #16	6.2 #20	11.2 #20
LAC allowed	4.0 #13	6.1 #15	10.1 #12	5.6 #23	4.6 #6	10.2 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.