Cowboys @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Mon, Nov 17, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

3-5-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

2-7 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

✓ DAL W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 26–23 LV

✓ DAL (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDAL -3.5

CloseDAL -3.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDAL -3.5

no move

CloseDAL -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DAL -3.5 · unchangedmodel DAL -3

model DAL -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (120 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDAL -3.5

CloseDAL -3.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 3.5-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 33–16; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 3.4; 48.2 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Close	NE @ NO 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	25–19	W	U46.5
Close	SF @ NYG 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Close	CHI @ CIN 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	47–42	W	O51.5
Close	DAL @ CAR 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-2.5	27–30	L	O45.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Close	LAC @ MIA 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	29–27	L	O45.5
Close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL WLWLL	4-5	44%	2-3	1-4
LV LWLWW	4-5	44%	2-2	3-4

Venue/role: DAL away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL OOOOU	6-3	67%	3-5-1
LV UUUOU	3-6	33%	2-7

Went over in Q4. Of 128 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	3-6-1 33%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
LV	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DAL 4–3 LV DAL leads · 7 games since 2001 · DAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL−1.0 →−1.6▼ 0.6#21

LV−2.0 →−4.0▼ 2.0#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

DAL

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ DAL better

#30

#31

Defense

LV better ▶

#18

−0.4 #24

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #23

64 plays #5

Pace

◀ DAL faster

57 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #3	24.4 #20	DAL
Yards / play	5.87 #5	5.08 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.12 #5	+0.03 #21	DAL
Success rate	47% #9	46% #22	DAL

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	15.4 #31	30.8 #31	Even
Yards / play	4.80 #29	6.10 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.16 #30	+0.16 #31	Even
Success rate	40% #30	51% #31	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	4.0 #19	12.0 #1	16.0 #3	5.8 #9	6.8 #20	12.6 #12
LV allowed	3.8 #10	8.1 #24	11.9 #20	7.0 #30	4.8 #5	11.8 #16

LV scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.7 #22	3.3 #32	7.0 #32	3.0 #27	4.8 #29	7.8 #29
DAL allowed	7.2 #31	9.0 #28	16.2 #30	5.6 #25	8.7 #26	14.2 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.