Patriots @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sun, Oct 12, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New England Patriots

3-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

1-4 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

NE -3.5

✓ NE W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 24–21 NO

✓ NE (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -3.5

CloseNE -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -3.5

no move

CloseNE -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -3.5 · unchangedmodel NE -3

model NE -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (103 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -3.5

CloseNE -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 3.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 25–19; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 46.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 3.1; 38.1 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Very close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Very close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Very close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Very close	SEA @ CHI 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-4.5	6–3	L	U42.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LWLWW	3-2	60%	2-0	1-1
NO LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: NE away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UOUOU	2-3	40%	3-2
NO UOOOU	3-2	60%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 49% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
NO	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NE 5–3 NO NE leads · 8 games since 2001 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 8 2023	New Orleans Saints 34 @ New England Patriots 0	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−2.3 →−1.2▲ 1.1#22

NO−1.6 →−3.4▼ 1.8#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

#12

Offense

◀ NE better

#26

#21

Defense

Even

#19

−0.2 #19

Turnovers

NO better ▶

+1.0 #6

60 plays #22

Pace

NO faster ▶

67 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #13	27.0 #24	NE
Yards / play	5.65 #10	5.26 #14	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #11	+0.01 #17	NE
Success rate	45% #15	46% #20	NE

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	NO off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	18.4 #28	20.2 #10	NE
Yards / play	4.61 #29	5.67 #23	NE
EPA / play	−0.06 #26	+0.05 #23	Even
Success rate	44% #21	48% #27	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.8 #10	7.4 #12	13.2 #9	4.4 #15	7.4 #14	11.8 #15
NO allowed	10.2 #32	9.6 #27	19.8 #32	3.8 #10	3.4 #3	7.2 #4

NO scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	2.0 #31	7.8 #11	9.8 #25	3.2 #27	5.4 #23	8.6 #27
NE allowed	4.0 #10	4.8 #6	8.8 #8	4.6 #17	6.8 #17	11.4 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.