Broncos vs Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sun, Oct 12, 2025, 9:30 AM EDTWeek 6 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff59°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

3-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

0-5 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

DEN -6.5

✓ NYJ W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 26–19 NYJ

✓ DEN (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -7.5

CloseDEN -6.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -7.5

1 → NYJ

CloseDEN -6.5

1 pt toward New York Jets

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -7.5 · closed DEN -6.5 · moved 1 toward NYJmodel DEN -5.5

model DEN -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 22% (23 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -7.5

CloseDEN -6.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like DEN as a 6.5-point neutral-site favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 13–11; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 4 similar games. 24 points stayed under 43.5, as in 1 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 6.1; 43.8 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	SF vs ARI 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	38–10	W	O43
Loose	BAL vs TEN 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–16	W	U41.5
Loose	GB vs NYG 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-8	22–27	L	O41.5
Loose	MIN vs CLE 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–17	W	O35.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	—	1-2
NYJ WLWLL	2-3	40%	—	2-2

Venue/role: DEN neutral, as favorite; NYJ neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOUUU	1-4	20%	3-2
NYJ OUOOO	4-1	80%	0-5

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
NYJ	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

DEN 10–6 NYJ DEN leads · 16 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2024	Denver Broncos 10 @ New York Jets 9	NYJ -8.5	DEN W
Oct 8 2023	New York Jets 31 @ Denver Broncos 21	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+0.4 →+2.2▲ 1.8#9

NYJ−1.0 →−2.9▼ 1.9#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

DEN

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#16

Offense

Even

#17

Defense

◀ DEN better

#24

−0.4 #22

Turnovers

◀ DEN better

−1.6 #32

65 plays #9

Pace

◀ DEN faster

60 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: DEN offense

	DEN off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #18	31.4 #31	DEN
Yards / play	5.50 #14	5.71 #25	DEN
EPA / play	+0.06 #12	+0.17 #29	DEN
Success rate	44% #19	42% #9	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	NYJ off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #19	16.8 #2	DEN
Yards / play	5.29 #21	4.81 #6	DEN
EPA / play	−0.01 #20	−0.09 #4	DEN
Success rate	49% #9	38% #1	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	4.0 #19	8.4 #8	12.4 #13	4.0 #20	7.0 #17	11.0 #18
NYJ allowed	5.2 #21	12.8 #32	18.0 #30	5.4 #22	8.0 #19	13.4 #23

NYJ scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	3.0 #25	3.8 #27	6.8 #28	3.4 #24	12.2 #1	15.6 #4
DEN allowed	3.6 #8	6.8 #18	10.4 #14	3.2 #6	3.2 #2	6.4 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.