Cardinals @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sun, Oct 12, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

2-3 · Power #25

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

4-1 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -8.5

✓ ARI W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 19–27 IND

✓ IND (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -5.5

CloseIND -8.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -5.5

3 → IND

CloseIND -8.5

3 pts toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -5.5 · closed IND -8.5 · moved 3 toward INDmodel IND -2.5

model IND -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 45% (56 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 25% (24 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -5.5

CloseIND -8.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as an 8.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: IND won 31–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 46.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.4 against an average line of 7.2; 51.8 points a game (usually 46.1). Of the 8 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	IND vs LV 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	40–6	W	U46.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5
Loose	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & spread	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Loose	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & rest	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Loose	KC vs TB 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-8.5	30–24	L	O45.5
Loose	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar total	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Loose	PHI vs GB 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & total	-5.5	22–10	W	U45.5
Loose	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	55–23	W	O47.5
Loose	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI WLWLL	2-3	40%	2-0	1-1
IND WWWLW	4-1	80%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UOUUO	2-3	40%	2-3
IND UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 149 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
IND	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARI 2–4 IND IND leads · 6 games since 2005 · IND has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI+0.1 →−1.0▼ 1.1#20

IND−0.8 →+2.7▲ 3.5#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ARI

Longer bar = better

IND

#25

Offense

IND better ▶

#12

Defense

Even

#12

0.0 #16

Turnovers

IND better ▶

+1.0 #5

60 plays #21

Pace

Even

61 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	ARI off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #23	17.8 #3	IND
Yards / play	4.79 #27	5.25 #13	IND
EPA / play	−0.01 #21	−0.07 #5	IND
Success rate	40% #29	48% #26	Even

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	32.6 #2	19.2 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.29 #2	5.14 #11	IND
EPA / play	+0.20 #1	−0.02 #12	IND
Success rate	51% #1	45% #19	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	6.0 #7	6.8 #17	12.8 #10	3.2 #27	4.6 #29	7.8 #30
IND allowed	3.2 #6	5.4 #13	8.6 #6	2.8 #4	6.4 #13	9.2 #5

IND scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.8 #10	12.2 #2	18.0 #1	8.0 #2	6.6 #18	14.6 #5
ARI allowed	2.6 #5	5.2 #12	7.8 #4	1.8 #1	9.6 #26	11.4 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.