Rams @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sun, Oct 12, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff66°F13 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

3-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Baltimore Ravens

1-4 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

LAR -6.5

✓ LAR W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 20 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 26–20 BAL

✓ LAR (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -7.5

CloseLAR -6.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -7.5

1 → BAL

CloseLAR -6.5

1 pt toward Baltimore Ravens

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -7.5 · closed LAR -6.5 · moved 1 toward BALmodel LAR -6.5 matches the line

model LAR -6.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 44% (51 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 25% (24 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -7.5

CloseLAR -6.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 6.5-point road favorite at BAL, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 17–3; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 20 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 6.6; 48.4 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	GB @ DAL 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	40–40	L	O46.5
Close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar team ratings	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Close	LAC @ NYG 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-5.5	18–21	L	U43.5
Close	WSH @ NO 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total	-7.5	20–19	L	U44.5
Close	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Close	BAL @ CLE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	24–29	L	O44.5
Close	TB @ CAR 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	26–23	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WWLWL	3-2	60%	1-1	3-1
BAL LWLLL	1-4	20%	1-2	0-1

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; BAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
BAL OOOOO	5-0	100%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
BAL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAR 4–5 BAL BAL leads · 9 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 10 2023	Los Angeles Rams 31 @ Baltimore Ravens 37	BAL -7.5	LAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.2 →+2.4▲ 2.2#7

BAL+3.6 →+0.7▼ 2.9#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

LAR

Longer bar = better

BAL

Offense

Even

#10

#11

Defense

◀ LAR better

#30

+0.2 #13

Turnovers

◀ LAR better

−1.0 #30

63 plays #13

Pace

◀ LAR faster

50 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #15	35.4 #32	LAR
Yards / play	6.36 #1	5.81 #28	LAR
EPA / play	+0.08 #10	+0.19 #30	LAR
Success rate	50% #2	50% #30	LAR

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #6	21.4 #14	BAL
Yards / play	6.24 #4	4.78 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.05 #13	−0.03 #11	Even
Success rate	44% #17	43% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	4.0 #20	7.2 #13	11.2 #21	6.2 #6	7.2 #16	13.4 #11
BAL allowed	4.8 #19	10.0 #29	14.8 #25	8.0 #30	12.6 #32	20.6 #32

BAL scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	4.6 #16	6.8 #17	11.4 #19	8.2 #1	8.6 #8	16.8 #3
LAR allowed	4.0 #10	7.2 #20	11.2 #19	4.0 #11	5.6 #10	9.6 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.