49ers @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Thu, Oct 2, 2025, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Los Angeles Rams · Division game

Weather at kickoff74°F7 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

3-1 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Rams

3-1 · Power #2

final

Closing spread

LAR -8.5

✓ SF W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 17–25 LAR

✗ LAR (78%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -3.5

CloseLAR -8.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -3.5

5 → LAR

CloseLAR -8.5

5 pts toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open46.5

▼ 3

Close43.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -3.5 · closed LAR -8.5 · moved 5 toward LARmodel LAR -7.5

model LAR -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 46% (52 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 19% (21 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -3.5

CloseLAR -8.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as an 8.5-point home favorite against SF, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 26–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 43.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.4 against an average line of 8.4; 47.6 points a game (usually 46). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs SF 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & total	-6.5	38–10	W	O44.5
Close	SF vs NO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-9	13–0	W	U43.5
Loose	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar total & season form	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Loose	BUF vs MIA 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7.5	32–29	L	O42
Loose	BUF vs NE 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & situation	-8	35–23	W	O44
Loose	SF vs SEA 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & rest	-9	41–23	W	O42
Loose	DET vs GB 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-8.5	22–29	L	O47
Loose	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-7.5	24–17	L	O40
Loose	DAL vs NYG 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-10	28–20	L	O45.5
Loose	BUF vs TB 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10	24–18	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WWLL	2-2	50%	2-0	—
LAR WWLW	3-1	75%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: SF away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF UOUO	2-2	50%	3-1
LAR UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 163 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
LAR	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

SF 31–24 LAR (1 tied) SF leads · 56 games since 1999 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 12 2024	Los Angeles Rams 12 @ San Francisco 49ers 6	SF -2.5	LAR W
Sep 22 2024	San Francisco 49ers 24 @ Los Angeles Rams 27	SF -6.5	LAR W
Jan 7 2023	Los Angeles Rams 21 @ San Francisco 49ers 20	SF -5.5	LAR W
Sep 17 2023	San Francisco 49ers 30 @ Los Angeles Rams 23	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+1.6▲ 0.7#13

LAR+0.2 →+2.5▲ 2.3#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

LAR

#15

Offense

LAR better ▶

#11

Defense

Even

−1.3 #30

Turnovers

LAR better ▶

+0.8 #8

66 plays #4

Pace

◀ SF faster

63 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	SF off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #23	20.3 #11	LAR
Yards / play	5.55 #13	4.74 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #18	−0.08 #6	LAR
Success rate	48% #6	41% #7	Even

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #13	18.8 #7	SF
Yards / play	6.16 #3	4.60 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #10	−0.06 #11	Even
Success rate	49% #4	44% #19	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	4.0 #20	4.8 #25	8.8 #24	2.8 #30	8.5 #10	11.3 #15
LAR allowed	3.3 #7	6.5 #15	9.8 #10	4.3 #13	6.3 #13	10.5 #14

LAR scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #15	12.3 #16	6.0 #3	6.8 #15	12.8 #10
SF allowed	0.0 #1	9.3 #26	9.3 #9	4.8 #16	4.8 #8	9.5 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.